Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest voting intention poll in Great Britain finds the Conservative Party leading by 10%—an increase of 3% from last week’s poll, and the same lead as two week’s ago. Altogether, the full numbers (with the changes from last week in parentheses) are as follows:

Conservative 44% (+1)

Labour 34% (-2)

Liberal Democrat 10% (+3)

Scottish National Party 4% (–)

Green 4% (-1)

Reform UK 3% (–)

Plaid Cymru 1% (–)

Other 2% (–)

When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Conservatives lead by 9%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 11% of the sample said they do not know how they would vote, including 7% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019, 6% of those who voted Labour, and 8% of those who voted Liberal Democrat.

This week’s sample had 53% of respondents saying they would be ‘certain to vote’ if there were to be a General Election in the near future, when it is safe for an election to be held, a 5% decrease since last week. Those who voted Conservative in 2019 were more likely to say they were ‘certain to vote’ (68%) than those who voted for Labour in 2019 (56%).

Predictions as to who is most likely to win the highest number of seats in the next election have not changed significantly: 41% expect the Conservative Party to win the highest number of seats (down 2% from last week) against 28% who think Labour (up 2%). Those who voted Conservative in 2019 are more confident of a Conservative victory (77%) than those who voted for Labour are confident of a Labour victory (68%).

The Government’s Net Competency Rating stands at +2% in this week’s poll, a 3% improvement since last week and the first positive rating since 8 March 2021. Altogether, 34% find the Government competent (up 2%), 32% find the Government incompetent (down 1%), and 25% find the Government neither incompetent nor competent (down 2%).

For the eleventh week in a row, Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s net approval rating is positive––this time at +15%, a 6% increase since last week. This week’s poll finds 47% approving of his overall job performance, against 32% disapproving.

Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak’s approval rating is relatively unchanged, with this week’s poll finding it at +28% (down 3%). 47% say they approve of Rishi Sunak’s job performance, while 19% disapprove.

Keir Starmer’s net approval rating stands at +2%, a result which has remained consistent for three weeks and is tied for the second-lowest approval rating ever for Keir Starmer. 30% approve of Keir Starmer’s job performance since becoming Leader of the Labour Party, while 28% disapprove. A plurality (34%) of members of the public neither approve nor disapprove of Starmer’s job performance.

Between Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer, 47% say they think Boris Johnson would be a better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom at this moment than Keir Starmer. Meanwhile, 28% think Keir Starmer would be the better Prime Minister when compared to Boris Johnson.

More specifically, Boris Johnson continues to lead Keir Starmer as being the one who best embodies the following descriptions: ‘can build a strong economy’ (47% to 27%), ‘knows how to get things done’ (47% to 26%), ‘stands up for the interests of the United Kingdom’ (50% to 28%), and ‘can tackle the coronavirus pandemic’ (48% to 24%).

After last week’s division on the topics, Boris Johnson now leads over Keir Starmer in best embodying someone who ‘cares about people like me’ (36% to 30%) and ‘represents change’ (39% to 33%).

Keir Starmer continues to lead only when it comes to best embodying the description ‘is in good physical and mental health’ (36% to 33%).

Although the Chancellor has a considerably more favourable net approval rating compared to the Prime Minister, more members of the public think Boris Johnson (43%) would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment than think Rishi Sunak (29%).

Rishi Sunak holds a 13% lead over Keir Starmer for the best Prime Minister at this moment, an increase of 3% since last week. Between Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak, 41% think Rishi Sunak would be the better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom against 28% who think Keir Starmer would be.

To find out more information about this research contact our research team. Redfield & Wilton Strategies is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

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