Latest GB Voting Intention (19-20 June 2024)

June 20, 2024
R&WS Research Team
Approval Rating | Conservative Party | GB Politics | Keir Starmer | Labour Party | Rishi Sunak | UK Elections | Voting Intention

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With just two weeks to go until polling day in the UK General Election, Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest national Westminster voting intention poll finds the Labour Party leading by 23%, two points less than in our previous poll released on Monday

For the first time in our polling, Reform UK has overtaken the Conservative Party into second place.

At 19%, Reform UK achieve their highest ever vote share in our polling, one point up from the 18% they achieved in our previous poll.

The Conservatives’ vote share in this poll (18%) is unchanged and ties the lowest ever in our polling in this Parliament and is one point lower than their worst under Truss, 19% on 19 October 2022, the day before Liz Truss announced her resignation.

Altogether, the full numbers (with changes from 14-17 June in parenthesis) are as follows:

Labour 42% (-1)
Reform UK 19% (+1)
Conservative 18% (–)
Liberal Democrat 11% (-1)
Green 5% (–)
Scottish National Party 3% (–)
Other 1% (–)

When those who say they do not know how they will vote in the General Election are included, the Labour Party leads by 22%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 7% of the sample say they do not know how they will vote, including 8% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 and just 1% of those who voted Labour.

Altogether, 80% of those who voted Labour in the last General Election say they will vote Labour again. 

Only 37% of those who voted Conservative in 2019 say they will now vote Conservative againthe joint-lowest percentage we’ve ever recorded, tying 16 October 2022 and 5-6 June this year.

28% of 2019 Conservative voters now say they will vote for Reform UK—just one point below their highest ever figure in our polling—while 20% will vote for Labour.

71% of respondents believe a Labour Party government will be the result of the General Election on 4 July, the highest figure ever in our polling to predict a Labour Government would be the result of the next election.

By contrast, only 15% believe the election will result in a Conservative Party government, the lowest percentage ever in our polling to predict a Conservative Government after the next election.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak receives a net approval rating of -27%, down three points from his previous rating and tying his lowest ever approval rating in our polling (recorded in our poll conducted between 7-10 June). 

Our latest poll finds 25% approving of his overall job performance (-2) against 52% (+1) disapproving.

Labour leader Keir Starmer’s net approval rating stands at +11%, down three points from our poll released on Monday. 40% approve of Starmer’s job performance (-2), while 29% disapprove (+1).

A majority of 68% of respondents think Keir Starmer will be the Prime Minister after the coming General Election, against only 14% who think Rishi Sunak will be the Prime Minister after the election.

Finally, over the past week, Rishi Sunak and other senior Conservatives have warned against giving Labour a “supermajority” or a “blank cheque,” conceding that Labour are likely to win the election.

Among those who voted Conservative in 2019, 45% say a warning about a Labour “supermajority” makes them more likely to vote Conservative, against 30% who say it makes them more likely to vote for another party, 7% who say it makes them more likely to not vote at all, and 18% who say they don’t know.

To find out more information about this research contact our research team. Redfield & Wilton Strategies is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Follow us on Twitter

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