Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest voting intention poll in Great Britain finds the Labour Party leading by 8%, four points lower as in our most recent poll on 7 September. Altogether, the full numbers (with the changes from 7 September in parentheses) are as follows: 

Labour 42% (–)
Conservative 34% (+4)
Liberal Democrat 10% (-4)
Green 5% (-1)
Scottish National Party 4% (-1)
Reform UK 3% (+1)
Other 1% (-1)

When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Labour Party leads by 7%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 15% of the sample says they do not know how they would vote, including 15% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 and 4% of those who voted Labour. 

Altogether, 87% of those who voted Labour in the last General Election say they would vote Labour again, while 66% of those who voted Conservative in 2019 say they would vote Conservative again.

Yesterday’s polling sample has 56% of respondents saying they would be ‘certain to vote’ if there were to be a General Election tomorrow. Those who voted Conservative in 2019 (66%) are 3 points more likely than those who voted Labour (63%) to say they are ‘certain to vote.’

The economy (64%) continues to be the most cited important issue respondents say would determine how they would vote, ahead of healthcare (54%). Respondents also select immigration (24%), education (22%), taxation (22%), and housing (20%).

A plurality (28%) of respondents believe a Labour Party majority would be the most likely outcome if a General Election were held in the next six months, while 25% expect a Conservative Party majority. A further 15% expect a Conservative-led minority Government, and 12% expect a Labour-led minority Government.

In the first rating since Liz Truss became Prime Minister, the Government receives a net competency rating of -22% this week, up a staggering 25 points from the rating of -47% recorded on September 4 (in the last poll conducted with Boris Johnson as Prime Minister). Altogether, 20% find the Government competent (+8), and 42% find the Government incompetent (-17).

Prime Minister Liz Truss receives a net approval rating of +3%, up 4 points from 7 September. Yesterday’s poll finds 28% approving of her overall job performance (+6), against 25% disapproving (+2).

Labour leader Keir Starmer’s net approval rating stands at +4%, up 7 points from 7 September. 33% approve of Starmer’s job performance (+5), while 29% disapprove (-2).

And finally, Liz Truss (40%, +3) leads Keir Starmer (36%, +1) by 4 points on who would be the better Prime Minister at this moment.