Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest voting intention poll in Great Britain finds the Conservative Party leading by 3%—a decrease of 1% from last week’s poll. Altogether, the full numbers (with the changes from last week in parentheses) are as follows:

Conservative 40% (–)

Labour 37% (+1)

Liberal Democrat 9% (–)

Green 5% (-1)

Scottish National Party 4% (–)

Reform UK 3% (-1)

Plaid Cymru 1% (+1)

Other 1% (–)

When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Conservatives lead by 2%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 13% of the sample say they do not know how they would vote, including 12% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 and 8% of those who voted Labour.

This week’s sample has 61% of respondents saying they would be ‘certain to vote’ if there were to be a General Election tomorrow. Those who voted Conservative in 2019 (74%) are more likely to say they are ‘certain to vote’ than those who voted for Labour in 2019 (62%).

Healthcare remains the issue respondents consider most likely to determine how they would vote in the next General Election. When asked to select up to three issues which would most determine how they would vote in a General Election, if there were to be one tomorrow, respondents select healthcare (55%), the economy (44%), immigration (25%), education (23%), the environment (22%), and Britain leaving the EU (21%).

If a General Election were to take place in the next six months, 38% of respondents expect the outcome to be a Conservative Party majority (up 2%). 20% expect a Labour Party majority (up 2%), 15% expect a Conservative Party-led minority Government (up 1%), and 6% expect a Labour Party-led minority Government (down 1%). 66% of 2019 Conservative Party voters think the Conservatives would achieve a majority (up 6%), whereas 46% of 2019 Labour voters expect that Labour would win a majority (up 3%).

The Government’s net competency rating is -12% in this week’s poll, a figure which has not changed in the past week. Altogether, 28% find the Government competent (up 1%), 40% find the Government incompetent (up 1%), and 24% find the Government neither competent nor incompetent (down 2%).

Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s net approval rating stands at -2%, a four-point increase since last week. This week’s poll finds 41% disapproving (down 1%) of his overall job performance, against 39% approving (up 3%).

Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak receives a net approval rating of +19%, representing a two-point increase compared to last week. 43% say they approve of Rishi Sunak’s job performance (up 1%), while 24% disapprove (down 1%).

Keir Starmer’s net approval rating has increased marginally by one point in the past week, now at -10%. 35% disapprove of Keir Starmer’s job performance (down 2%), while 25% approve (down 1%). Meanwhile, 33% neither approve nor disapprove of Starmer’s job performance (up 2%).

Between Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer, 43% say they think Boris Johnson would be a better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom at this moment than Keir Starmer, a result which has increased slightly from 42% in last week’s poll. Conversely, 32% think Keir Starmer would be the better Prime Minister when compared to Boris Johnson (up 1%).

More specifically, Boris Johnson continues to lead over Keir Starmer as being the one who best embodies the following descriptions: ‘can build a strong economy’ (43% to 32%), ‘stands up for the interests of the United Kingdom’ (42% to 32%), ‘can work with foreign leaders’ (42% to 33%), ‘can bring British people together’ (41% to 32%).

Keir Starmer continues to lead over Boris Johnson when it comes to best embodying the descriptions of ‘being in good physical and mental health’ (40% to 28%) and ‘is willing to work with other parties when possible’ (36% to 32%).

Meanwhile, pluralities of respondents say they do not know which of the two ‘tells the truth’ (45%), ‘is creative’ (43%), or ‘prioritises the environment’ (40%).

When asked to assess whether Boris Johnson or Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham would be a better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment, 46% think Boris Johnson would be the better Prime Minister (up 1%), against 28% who think Andy Burnham would be (up 1%).

Comparing the current Prime Minister to London Mayor Sadiq Khan, 48% think Boris Johnson (up 1%) and 20% think Sadiq Kahn (no change) would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment.

When it comes to Deputy Leader of the Labour Party Angela Rayner, 49% say Boris Johnson would be a better Prime Minister than her at this moment (up 1%), in contrast to 19% who say Angela Rayner would be the better Prime Minister (up 1%).

Further, 39% say Boris Johnson (up 2%) and 30% say Rishi Sunak (up 1%) would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment.

Rishi Sunak holds a four-point lead over Keir Starmer for the best Prime Minister at this moment. Between Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak, 38% think Rishi Sunak would be the better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom (down 2%), against 34% who think Keir Starmer would be (up 2%).

To find out more information about this research contact our research team. Redfield & Wilton Strategies is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

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