Latest GB Voting Intention (18 February 2024)

February 19, 2024
R&WS Research Team
Approval Rating | Conservative Party | GB Politics | Keir Starmer | Labour Party | Rishi Sunak | UK Elections | Voting Intention

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Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest national Westminster voting intention poll finds the Labour Party leading by 23%, two points less than in our previous poll released on Monday last week

Altogether, the full numbers (with changes from 11 February in parenthesis) are as follows:

Labour 46% (–)
Conservative 23% (+2)
Reform UK 11% (-1)
Liberal Democrat 9% (-2)
Green 6% (+1)
Scottish National Party 3% (–)
Other 1% (-1)

When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Labour Party leads by 20%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 13% of the sample say they do not know how they would vote, including 13% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 and 5% of those who voted Labour. 

Only 44% of those who voted Conservative in 2019 say they would vote Conservative again—the joint-lowest percentage we’ve recorded since Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister, and just seven points higher than the lowest percentage (37%) we’ve ever recorded (16 October 2022).

20% of 2019 Conservative voters now say they would vote for Labour if a General Election were held tomorrow, while 18% would vote for Reform UK.

59% of British voters cite the economy as among the three most important issues that would determine how they would vote in a General Election, ahead of healthcare (57%). Respondents also select immigration (35%), education (24%), and housing (23%).

47% of respondents believe a Labour Party majority would be the most likely outcome if a General Election were held in the next six months, tying the highest percentage we’ve ever recorded to say they expect this outcome. A further 11% expect a Labour-led minority Government. Only 14% expect a Conservative Party majority, while another 9% expect a Conservative-led minority Government. 

The Government’s net competency rating stands at -36% this week. Altogether, 16% find the Government competent (-2), while 52% find the Government incompetent (–).

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak receives a net approval rating of -25%, unchanged from last week’s poll, and the joint-lowest approval rating Sunak has ever recorded in our polling as either Prime Minister or Chancellor of the Exchequer

This week’s poll finds 26% approving of his overall job performance (+1) against 51% (+1) disapproving.

Labour leader Keir Starmer’s net approval rating stands at +9%, unchanged from last week. 39% approve of Starmer’s job performance (–), while 30% disapprove (–).

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s net approval rating stands at -11%, unchanged from our previous poll. Overall, 35% disapprove of Hunt’s performance as Chancellor (–) and 24% approve (–).

And finally, Keir Starmer (44%, -1) leads Rishi Sunak (28%, -1) by 16 points on who would be the better Prime Minister at this moment, just one point less than Starmer’s record leave over Sunak since the latter became Prime Minister, recorded on 3 September 2023. 

To find out more information about this research contact our research team. Redfield & Wilton Strategies is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Follow us on Twitter

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