Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest voting intention poll in Great Britain finds the Labour Party leading by 27%, six points more than in our most recent poll released on Monday last week, and the largest lead Labour has held over the Conservatives since Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister. Altogether, the full numbers (with the changes from 12 February in parentheses) are as follows:
Labour 51% (+3)
Conservative 24% (-3)
Liberal Democrat 10% (+1)
Reform UK 6% (–)
Green 5% (–)
Scottish National Party 3% (-1)
Other 1% (–)
When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Labour Party leads by 22%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 15% of the sample say they do not know how they would vote, including 17% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 and 4% of those who voted Labour.
Altogether, 88% of those who voted Labour in the last General Election say they would vote Labour again, while only 47% of those who voted Conservative in 2019 say they would vote Conservative again.
64% of British voters cite the economy as one of the three most important issues that would determine how they would vote in a General Election, ahead of healthcare (56%). Respondents also select immigration (25%), education (24%), and housing (19%).
A plurality (40%) of respondents believe a Labour Party majority would be the most likely outcome if a General Election were held in the next six months. A further 11% expect a Labour-led minority Government. Just 14% expect a Conservative Party majority, while another 10% expect a Conservative-led minority Government.
The Government’s net competency rating stands at -38% this week, down six points from last Sunday, and the joint-worst rating we’ve recorded since Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister. Altogether, 15% find the Government competent (-3), and 53% find the Government incompetent (+3). More of those who voted Conservative in 2019 find the Government to be incompetent (38%) than competent (29%).
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak receives a net approval rating of -22%, down six points from our poll last Sunday, and the lowest approval rating he has recorded as either Prime Minister or Chancellor. Yesterday’s poll finds 24% approving of his overall job performance (-4) against 46% (+2) disapproving.
Labour leader Keir Starmer’s net approval rating stands at +12%, up three points from last week. 38% approve of Starmer’s job performance (+1), while 26% disapprove (-2).
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s net approval rating stands at -17%, down three points since last Sunday. Overall, 36% disapprove of Hunt’s performance as Chancellor (-2), and 19% approve (-5).
And finally, Keir Starmer (41%, +1) leads Rishi Sunak (32%, -2) by nine points on who would be the better Prime Minister at this moment, the joint-largest lead he has held over Sunak since Sunak became Prime Minister in October.