Latest GB Voting Intention
(17 May 2021)

May 17, 2021
R&WS Research Team
Approval Rating | GB Politics | UK Elections | Voting Intention
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Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest voting intention poll in Great Britain finds the Conservative Party leading by 9%—a decrease of 2% from last week’s poll. Altogether, the full numbers (with the changes from last week in parentheses) are as follows:

Conservative 42% (-3)

Labour 33% (-1)

Liberal Democrat 10% (+2)

Scottish National Party 4% (–)

Green 6% (+1)

Reform UK 2% (–)

Plaid Cymru 1% (+1)

Other 2% (–)

When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Conservatives also lead by 9%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 13% of the sample said they do not know how they would vote, including 10% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 and 10% of those who voted Labour.

This week’s sample had 56% of respondents saying they would be ‘certain to vote’ if there were to be a General Election in the near future, when it is safe for an election to be held—an increase of 5% since last week. Those who voted Conservative in 2019 (70%) were more likely to say they are ‘certain to vote’ than those who voted for Labour in 2019 (57%).

Predictions as to who is most likely to win the highest number of seats in the next General Election have not changed significantly in the past week: 48% expect the Conservative Party to win the highest number of seats (no change) against 21% who think Labour (down 3%). This latest figure represents the lowest ever result for Labour and is tied with last week for the highest ever result for the Conservatives. 80% (down 5%) of 2019 Conservative voters are confident of a Conservative victory, whereas 57% (down 9%) of 2019 Labour voters are confident of a Labour victory.

The Government’s Net Competency Rating stands at 0% in this week’s poll, a 3% decrease from last week’s tied highest-ever rating. Altogether, 31% find the Government competent (down 4%), 31% find the Government incompetent (down 1%), and 30% find the Government neither competent nor incompetent (up 6%).

Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s net approval rating is positive for the fifteenth week in a row––this time at +10%, though this represents a seven-point decrease from last week. This week’s poll finds 44% approving of his overall job performance (down 4%), against 34% disapproving (up 3%).

Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak’s approval rating has also decreased slightly since last week, with this week’s poll finding it at +27% (down 5%). 46% say they approve of Rishi Sunak’s job performance, while 19% disapprove.

Keir Starmer’s net approval rating stands at -12%, a five-point decrease from last week and the lowest ever net approval rating for Starmer since he became Leader of the Labour Party. 35% disapprove of Keir Starmer’s job performance (up 2%), while 23% approve (down 3%). Meanwhile, a slight plurality (36%) neither approves nor disapproves of Starmer’s job performance.

Between Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer, 50% say they think Boris Johnson would be a better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom at this moment than Keir Starmer, a result which has not changed in the past week. Conversely, 24% think Keir Starmer would be the better Prime Minister when compared to Boris Johnson.

More specifically, Boris Johnson continues to lead over Keir Starmer as being the one who best embodies the following descriptions: ‘can build a strong economy’ (51% to 24%), ‘knows how to get things done’ (49% to 24%), ‘stands up for the interests of the United Kingdom’ (50% to 26%), and ‘can tackle the coronavirus pandemic’ (50% to 23%).

Keir Starmer only leads when it comes to best embodying the description of being ‘in good physical and mental health’ (37% to 32%).

Although the Chancellor has a considerably more favourable net approval rating compared to the Prime Minister, more respondents think Boris Johnson (44%) would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment than think Rishi Sunak (27%).

Rishi Sunak holds a 16% lead over Keir Starmer for the best Prime Minister at this moment, a decrease of 3% since last week. Between Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak, 44% think Rishi Sunak would be the better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom against 28% who think Keir Starmer would be.

To find out more information about this research contact our research team. Redfield & Wilton Strategies is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

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