Latest GB Voting Intention (17 March 2024)

March 18, 2024
R&WS Research Team
Approval Rating | Conservative Party | GB Politics | Keir Starmer | Labour Party | Rishi Sunak | UK Elections | Voting Intention

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Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest national Westminster voting intention poll finds the Labour Party leading by 26%, eight points more than in our previous poll released on Monday last week

The Conservatives’ vote share in this poll (21%) equals their lowest ever in our polling since Rishi Sunak as Prime Minister. The party previously reached 21% in our polling last month and on 23 October 2022, in our final poll with Liz Truss as Prime Minister.

Only twice during this Parliamentary term have the Conservatives achieved a lower vote share, both during the week of Liz Truss’ resignation: 20% on 16 October 2022 (the Sunday after her sacking of Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng) and 19% on 19 October 2022 (the day before announcing her resignation).

At 8%, the Liberal Democrats have their lowest vote share since 29 January 2023 (also 8%), just one point above their lowest during this Parliament (7%, last achieved on 7 June 2021).

And at 14%, Reform UK equals their highest vote share achieved in our polling to date.

Altogether, the full numbers (with changes from 10 March in parenthesis) are as follows:

Labour 47% (+5)
Conservative 21% (-3)
Reform UK 14% (–)
Liberal Democrat 8% (-4)
Green 6% (+1)
Scottish National Party 3% (+1)
Other 1% (–)

When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Labour Party leads by 23%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 12% of the sample say they do not know how they would vote, including 9% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 and 4% of those who voted Labour. 

Altogether, 84% of those who voted Labour in the last General Election say they would vote Labour again, while only 46% of those who voted Conservative in 2019 say they would vote Conservative again.

21% of 2019 Conservative voters now say they would vote for Reform UK if a General Election were held tomorrow—equalling their record high in our polling for the third week in a row—while 18% would vote for Labour.

55% of British voters cite the economy as among the three most important issues that would determine how they would vote in a General Election, narrowly ahead of healthcare (54%). Respondents also select immigration (30%), housing (23%), education (21%), and taxation (21%).

54% of respondents believe a Labour Party government will be the result of the next General Election. 21%, meanwhile, believe there will be a Conservative Party government.

The Government’s net competency rating stands at -34% this week. Altogether, 17% find the Government competent, while 51% find the Government incompetent.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak receives a net approval rating of -23%, down four points from last week’s poll. This week’s poll finds 25% approving of his overall job performance (–) against 48% (+4) disapproving.

Labour leader Keir Starmer’s net approval rating stands at +8%, the same as last week. 36% approve of Starmer’s job performance (+2), while 28% disapprove (+2).

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s net approval rating stands at -11%, down four points from our previous poll. Overall, 34% disapprove of Hunt’s performance as Chancellor (+5) and 23% approve (+1).

And finally, Keir Starmer (43%) leads Rishi Sunak (28%) by 15 points on who would be the better Prime Minister at this moment.

To find out more information about this research contact our research team. Redfield & Wilton Strategies is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Follow us on Twitter

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