Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest voting intention poll in Great Britain finds the Labour Party leading by 10%, one point lower as in last Monday’s poll. Altogether, the full numbers (with the changes from 10 July in parentheses) are as follows: 

Labour 42% (–)

Conservative 32% (+1)

Liberal Democrat 12% (–)

Green 5% (–)

Scottish National Party 4% (–)

Reform UK 3% (-2)

Plaid Cymru 0% (–)

Other 2% (+1)

When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Labour Party leads by 8%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 16% of the sample says they do not know how they would vote, including 19% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 and 7% of those who voted Labour. Altogether, 83% of those who voted Labour in 2019 say they would vote Labour again, while 63% of those who voted Conservative say they would vote Conservative again.

Yesterday’s sample has 57% of respondents saying they would be ‘certain to vote’ if there were to be a General Election tomorrow. Those who voted Labour in 2019 (67%) are slightly more likely than those who voted Conservative (64%) to say they are ‘certain to vote.’

The economy (63%) ranks as the most cited important issue respondents say would determine how they would vote, ahead of healthcare (52%). Respondents also select taxation (29%), immigration (24%), and education (22%).

A plurality (26%) of respondents believe a Labour Party majority would be the most likely outcome if a General Election were held in the next six months. 19% expect a Conservative Party majority, 18% expect a Conservative-led minority Government, and 13% expect a Labour-led minority Government.

The Government’s net competency rating is -37% in this week’s poll, the same as last Sunday. Altogether, 17% find the Government competent (+1), and 54% find the Government incompetent (+1).

Prime Minister Boris Johnson receives a net approval rating of -24%, down five points from our poll on 10 July. Yesterday’s poll finds 52% disapproving of his overall job performance (+2), against 28% approving (-3).

Keir Starmer’s net approval rating is also negative, standing at -5%, four points higher than on Monday last week. 27% approve of Keir Starmer’s job performance (–1), while 32% disapprove (-5).

Keir Starmer (43%, +2) stands ahead of Rishi Sunak (33%, –1) on who would be the better Prime Minister at this moment.

Keir Starmer (41%) also leads Liz Truss (29%), by a slightly wider margin than against Rishi Sunak,on who would be the better Prime Minister at this moment.

Finally, Keir Starmer (37%) leads Penny Mordaunt (31%) on who would be the better Prime Minister at this momentby a somewhat narrower margin than against the other two leading contenders to replace Boris Johnson.