Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest voting intention poll in Great Britain finds the Labour Party leading by 13%, a nine-point increase to their lead over the Conservatives in last week’s poll. This result marks Labour’s largest lead since we began tracking voting intention following the 2019 General Election, as well as the largest lead we have recorded for any party since May 2020. Altogether, the full numbers (with the changes from 7 January in parentheses) are as follows:
Labour 43% (+4)
Conservative 30% (-5)
Liberal Democrat 9% (-3)
Green 7% (+2)
Scottish National Party 4% (–)
Reform UK 4% (–)
Plaid Cymru 1% (+1)
Other 2% (+1)
When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Labour Party leads by 11 points. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 16% of the sample say they do not know how they would vote (no change), including a significant 20% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 (up 3%) and 6% of those who voted Labour (down 3%).
Today’s sample has 54% of respondents saying they would be ‘certain to vote’ if there were to be a General Election tomorrow. Those who voted Conservative in 2019 (63%) are slightly more likely to say they are ‘certain to vote’ than those who voted Labour (60%).
Healthcare remains the issue respondents consider most likely to determine how they would vote in the next General Election. When asked to select up to three issues which would most determine how they would vote in a General Election, if there were to be one tomorrow, respondents select healthcare (57%), the economy (45%), immigration (27%), education (27%), coronavirus restrictions (24%), and the environment (21%).
For the first time since we began asking this question in July 2021, a plurality (27%) of respondents believe a Labour Party majority would be the most likely outcome if a General Election were held in the next six months (up 5%). 20% expect a Conservative majority (down 4%), 16% expect a Conservative-led minority Government (down 2%), and 13% expect a Labour-led minority Government (up 2%). 37% of 2019 Conservative Party voters think the Conservatives would achieve a majority (down 7%), while 48% of 2019 Labour voters expect that Labour would win a majority (up 5%).
The Government’s net competency rating is -37% in this week’s poll, decreasing 11 points to the lowest net competency rating we have recorded since we began tracking this question in August 2020. Altogether, 17% find the Government competent (down 5%), 54% find the Government incompetent (up 6%), and 22% find the Government neither competent nor incompetent (down 2%).
At -31%, Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s net approval rating has fallen 12 points to the lowest rating we have recorded for him. This week’s poll finds 56% disapproving (up 6%) of his overall job performance, against 25% approving (down 6%).
Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak receives a net approval rating of +18%, representing a one-point increase compared to last week. 43% say they approve of Rishi Sunak’s job performance (no change), while 25% disapprove (down 1%).
Keir Starmer’s net approval rating has increased by three points to 0%—the highest net approval rating we have recorded for Starmer since April 2021. 30% disapprove of Keir Starmer’s job performance (down 3%), while 30% approve (no change). Meanwhile, 33% neither approve nor disapprove of Starmer’s job performance (up 3%).
42% think Keir Starmer (up 5%) and 29% think Boris Johnson (down 7%) would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment, marking Starmer’s largest lead over Johnson in this regard since we began tracking this question in June 2020.
Boris Johnson no longer leads over Keir Starmer as being the one who best embodies any of the various leadership characteristics on which we poll. Compared to last week, there have been five-point decreases in the proportions of respondents who believe Johnson is the one who best embodies the characteristics ‘can bring British people together’ (28%), ‘is a strong leader’ (26%), and ‘stands up for the interests of the UK’ (31%).
Starmer leads over Johnson when it comes to best embodying the descriptions ‘can build a strong economy’ (36% to 33%) and ‘can tackle the coronavirus pandemic’ (35% to 31%) for the first time we have recorded.
Meanwhile, pluralities of respondents continue to say they do not know which of the two ‘tells the truth’ (47%), ‘prioritises the environment’ (44%), or ‘is a strong leader’ (38%).
Further, in a contest between the Chancellor of the Exchequer and the current Prime Minister, 42% say Rishi Sunak (up 4%) and 24% say Boris Johnson (down 5%) would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment—the largest lead we have recorded for Sunak over Johnson on this topic. This week’s poll also finds Boris Johnson’s narrowest lead over Rishi Sunak for better Prime Minister among 2019 Conservative voters, with 41% of this demographic saying Johnson and 40% saying Sunak would be better.
Rishi Sunak holds a one-point lead over Keir Starmer for the better Prime Minister at this moment, representing Sunak’s narrowest lead over Starmer since we began tracking this question. Between Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak, 38% think Rishi Sunak would be the better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom (no change), against 37% who think Keir Starmer would be (up 2%).