Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest voting intention poll in Great Britain finds the Labour Party leading by 8%, the same lead as last week’s poll. Altogether, the full numbers (with the changes from 10 April in parentheses) are as follows:
Labour 42% (–)
Conservative 34% (–)
Liberal Democrat 10% (+2)
Green 5% (–)
Scottish National Party 5% (+1)
Reform UK 3% (-1)
Plaid Cymru 0% (-1)
Other 1% (-1)
When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Labour Party leads by 7%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 17% of the sample says they do not know how they would vote (up 2%), including 14% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 (down 2%) and 6% of those who voted Labour (up 1%). Altogether, 85% of those who voted Labour in 2019 say they would vote Labour again, while 66% of those who voted Conservative say they would vote the same way.
This week’s sample has 47% of respondents saying they would be ‘certain to vote’ if there were to be a General Election tomorrow (down 5%). Those who voted Conservative in 2019 (62%, down 1%) are more likely than those who voted Labour (52%, down 9%) to say they are ‘certain to vote.’
The economy (55%, down 2%) is tied with healthcare (55%, up 2%) as the issue that the most respondents consider likely to determine how they would vote in the next General Election. When asked to select up to three issues which would most determine how they would vote in a General Election, if there were to be one tomorrow, respondents also select education (34%, up 6%), taxation (27%, up 2%), housing (25%, up 3%), and immigration (23%, no change).
For the first time since 21 February, before the invasion of Ukraine, a plurality (28%, up 3%) of respondents believe a Labour Party majority would be the most likely outcome if a General Election were held in the next six months. 25% expect a Conservative Party majority (down 1%), 14% expect a Conservative-led minority Government (down 3%%), and 9% expect a Labour-led minority Government (down 2%). 47% of 2019 Conservative Party voters think the Conservatives would achieve a majority (up 2%), while 57% of 2019 Labour voters expect that Labour would win a majority (up 11%).
The Government’s net competency rating is -30% in this week’s poll, decreasing by 5 points since last week. Altogether, 19% find the Government competent (down 1%), 49% find the Government incompetent (up 4%), and 24% find the Government neither competent nor incompetent (down 4%).
Prime Minister Boris Johnson receives a net approval rating of -21%, increasing by 2 points in the past week. This week’s poll finds 49% disapproving of his overall job performance (down 3%), against 28% approving (down 1%).
For the third time in our polling, Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak’s net approval rating is negative, standing at -18%. 26% say they approve of Rishi Sunak’s job performance (down 2%), while 44% disapprove (up 4%).
Keir Starmer sees a negative net approval rating of -5%. 25% approve of Keir Starmer’s job performance (down 2%), while 30% disapprove (down 2%). Meanwhile, 35% neither approve nor disapprove of Starmer’s job performance (up 1%).
Keir Starmer (39%, up 1%) leads Boris Johnson (33%, down 2%) by 6% in terms of who Britons think would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment.
Boris Johnson only leads over Keir Starmer as being the one who best embodies the characteristics ‘can tackle the coronavirus pandemic’ (36% to 31%) / ‘can lead the UK out of the coronavirus pandemic’ (37% to 32%).
In all other categories, Keir Starmer leads Boris Johnson.
However, pluralities indicate they don’t know which of the two ‘is creative’ (46%), ‘tells the truth’ (47%), ‘prioritises the environment’ (42%), or ‘has the better foreign policy strategy’ (40%).
In a contest between the Chancellor of the Exchequer and the current Prime Minister, 22% say Rishi Sunak (down 6%) and 35% say Boris Johnson (up 3%) would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment, while a further 42% say they don’t know (up 3%).
Keir Starmer is now significantly ahead of Rishi Sunak on who would be the better Prime Minister at this moment. Between Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer, 28% think Sunak would be the better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom (down 5%), against 41% who think Starmer would be (up 3%).