Latest GB Voting Intention (16 October 2022)

October 17, 2022
R&WS Research Team
Approval Rating | GB Politics | UK Elections | Voting Intention

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Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest voting intention poll in Great Britain finds the Labour Party leading by 36%, seven points higher as in our most recent poll on Thursday last week, and the largest lead recorded by any polling company for any party since October 1997. Altogether, the full numbers (with the changes from 13 October in parentheses) are as follows: 

Labour 56% (+3)
Conservative 20% (-4)
Liberal Democrat 11% (-2)
Green 5% (+2)
Scottish National Party 4% (–)
Reform UK 2% (–)
Other 1% (-2)

When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Labour Party leads by 31%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, more respondents say they do not know how they would vote (17%) than say they would vote Conservative (16%). 25% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 and just 3% of those who voted Labour are uncertain.

Altogether, 93% of those who voted Labour in the last General Election say they would vote Labour again, while only 37% of those who voted Conservative in 2019 say they would vote Conservative again—the first time in our polling that this number has fallen below 40%.

Yesterday’s polling sample has 45% of respondents saying they would be ‘certain to vote’ if there were to be a General Election tomorrow. Those who voted Conservative in 2019 (57%) are more likely than those who voted Labour (48%) to say they are ‘certain to vote.’

70% of British voters, the joint-highest figure we’ve recorded to date, cite the economy as one of the three most important issues that would determine how they would vote in a General Election, ahead of healthcare (58%). Respondents also select education (30%), taxation (27%), and housing (22%).

A large plurality (47%) of respondents believe a Labour Party majority would be the most likely outcome if a General Election were held in the next six months, the largest number to expect a Labour majority that we’ve recorded. Just 14% expect a Conservative Party majority. A further 9% expect a Labour-led minority Government, and 8% expect a Conservative-led minority Government.

The Government’s net competency rating stands at -60% this week—a record low in our polling—down 15 points from last Sunday. Altogether, only 7% find the Government competent (-6), and 67% find the Government incompetent (+9).

Prime Minister Liz Truss receives a net approval rating of -61%, down 13 points from our poll last Thursday. Yesterday’s poll finds only 9% approving of her overall job performance (-5), against 70% disapproving (+8). 

Among 2019 Conservative voters, a majority (67%) disapprove of Liz Truss’s job performance as Prime Minister. Only 12% approve. Her net approval rating with 2019 Conservative voters stands at -55%, down 18 points since Thursday’s poll. Among those who would vote Conservative now, her net approval is -15%.

Labour leader Keir Starmer’s net approval rating stands at +8%, up three points from Thursday last week. 34% approve of Starmer’s job performance (+2), while 26% disapprove (-1).

And finally, Keir Starmer (60%, +12) leads Liz Truss (13%, -10) by 47 points on who would be the better Prime Minister at this moment—larger than any lead Starmer had held over Boris Johnson before Johnson resigned. Among 2019 Conservative voters, Starmer (50%, +18) leads Truss (21%, -17) by 29 points on who would be the better Prime Minister.

To find out more information about this research contact our research team. Redfield & Wilton Strategies is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Follow us on Twitter

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