Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest voting intention poll in Great Britain finds the Labour Party leading by 1%—a decrease of one point from last Thursday’s poll. Altogether, the full numbers (with the changes from 10 November in parentheses) are as follows: 

Labour 37% (-1)

Conservative 36% (–)

Liberal Democrat 10% (–)

Green 5% (-1)

Scottish National Party 4% (–)

Reform UK 4% (+1)

Plaid Cymru 1% (+1)

Other 2% (+1)

When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, Labour lead by 1%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 13% of the sample say they do not know how they would vote, including 12% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 and 6% of those who voted Labour.

This week’s sample has 58% of respondents saying they would be ‘certain to vote’ if there were to be a General Election tomorrow. Those who voted Conservative in 2019 (67%) are more likely to say they are ‘certain to vote’ than those who voted for Labour in 2019 (62%).

Healthcare remains the issue respondents consider most likely to determine how they would vote in the next General Election. When asked to select up to three issues which would most determine how they would vote in a General Election, if there were to be one tomorrow, respondents select healthcare (53%), the economy (39%), immigration (27%), education (26%), the environment (26%), and Britain leaving the EU (21%).

If a General Election were to take place in the next six months, 33% of respondents expect the outcome to be a Conservative Party majority (down 5% compared to last Monday). 19% expect a Labour Party majority (up 3%), 18% expect a Conservative Party-led minority Government (up 2%), and 7% expect a Labour Party-led minority Government (up 2%). 56% of 2019 Conservative Party voters think the Conservatives would achieve a majority (down 6%), whereas 43% of 2019 Labour voters expect that Labour would win a majority (up 3%).

The Government’s net competency rating is -20% in this week’s poll, a further four-point decrease since last week and the lowest net competency rating we have recorded for the Government this year. Altogether, 24% find the Government competent (down 2%), 44% find the Government incompetent (up 2%), and 24% find the Government neither competent nor incompetent (no change).

Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s net approval rating stands at -10%, a four-point decrease since last week. This week’s poll finds 45% disapproving (up 3%) of his overall job performance, against 35% approving (down 1%).

Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak receives a net approval rating of +19%, representing a seven-point increase compared to last week’s lowest-ever approval rating for the Chancellor since April 2020. 43% say they approve of Rishi Sunak’s job performance (up 4%), while 24% disapprove (down 3%).

Keir Starmer’s net approval rating has not changed in the past week, still standing at -9%. 35% disapprove of Keir Starmer’s job performance (up 1%), while 26% approve (up 1%). Meanwhile, 33% neither approve nor disapprove of Starmer’s job performance (up 2%).

Between Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer, 40% say they think Boris Johnson would be a better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom at this moment than Keir Starmer, a result which has decreased slightly from 42% in last week’s poll. Conversely, 31% think Keir Starmer would be the better Prime Minister when compared to Boris Johnson (down 1%).

More specifically, Boris Johnson continues to lead over Keir Starmer as being the one who best embodies the following descriptions: ‘can build a strong economy’ (43% to 29%), ‘stands up for the interests of the United Kingdom’ (42% to 32%), ‘can work with foreign leaders’ (40% to 34%), ‘can bring British people together’ (38% to 33%).

Keir Starmer continues to lead over Boris Johnson when it comes to best embodying the descriptions of ‘being in good physical and mental health’ (40% to 28%) and ‘is willing to work with other parties when possible’ (35% to 33%). 

Meanwhile, pluralities of respondents say they do not know which of the two ‘tells the truth’ (46%), ‘is creative’ (43%), ‘prioritises the environment’ (40%), or ‘has the better foreign policy strategy’ (40%).

When asked to assess whether Boris Johnson or Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham would be a better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment, 44% think Boris Johnson would be the better Prime Minister (down 2% compared to one month ago), against 29% who think Andy Burnham would be (up 1%). 

Comparing the current Prime Minister to London Mayor Sadiq Khan, 46% think Boris Johnson (down 2%) and 20% think Sadiq Kahn (no change) would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment.

When it comes to Deputy Leader of the Labour Party Angela Rayner, 47% say Boris Johnson would be a better Prime Minister than her at this moment (down 2%), in contrast to 20% who say Angela Rayner would be the better Prime Minister (up 1%).

Further, 35% say Boris Johnson (down 2%) and 33% say Rishi Sunak (up 2%) would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment.

Rishi Sunak holds a five-point lead over Keir Starmer for the best Prime Minister at this moment. Between Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak, 38% think Rishi Sunak would be the better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom (-1%), against 33% who think Keir Starmer would be (up 1%).