Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest voting intention poll in Great Britain finds the Conservative Party leading by 7%––a decrease of 2% from last week’s poll. Altogether, the full numbers (with the changes from last week in parentheses) are as follows:
Conservative 43% (-2)
Labour 36% (–)
Liberal Democrat 7% (–)
Scottish National Party 4% (–)
Green 5% (+1)
Reform UK 3% (–)
Plaid Cymru 0% (–)
Other 1% (–)
When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Conservatives lead by 6%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 18% of the sample said they do not know how they would vote, including 14% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019, 8% of those who voted Labour, and 36% of those who voted Liberal Democrat.
This week’s sample had 48% of respondents saying they would be ‘certain to vote’ if there were to be a General Election in the near future, when it is safe for an election to be held, a 6% decrease since last week and the lowest recorded nationally in the past year. It is possible that this week’s likelihood to vote result is an anomaly. Nevertheless, with three years to go before the next likely election, it is also plausible for the likelihood to vote among the general population to be relatively low.
Those who voted Conservative in 2019 were more likely to say they were ‘certain to vote’ (71%) than those who had voted for Labour in 2019 (47%). 2019 Labour voters are 8% less likely to say they are ‘certain to vote’ than last week and 15% less likely than two weeks ago. In fact, before weighting our sample by turnout, the Labour Party leads in voting intention by 1%. While over a third of those who voted Liberal Democrat in 2019 do not know how they will vote now, 50% nevertheless say they are ‘certain to vote,’ a decrease of 24% from last week.
Predictions as to who is most likely to win the highest number of seats in the next election have changed only slightly: 39% expect the Conservative Party to win the highest number of seats (down 3% from last week) against 31% who think Labour (up 2%). Those who say they would now vote Conservative are still significantly more confident of a Conservative victory (86%) than those who say they would now vote Labour are confident of a Labour victory (70%).
The Government’s Net Competency Rating stands at -4% in this week’s poll, a decrease of 7% from the Government’s first positive rating last week. Altogether, 34% find the Government incompetent (up 1%) and 30% find the Government competent (down 6%). 25% find the Government neither incompetent nor incompetent (up 1%).
For the sixth week in a row, Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s net approval rating is positive––this time at +13%, a marginal decrease of 1% since last week. This week’s poll finds 44% approving of his overall job performance, against 31% disapproving.
Following the Budget announcement two weeks ago, Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak’s approval rating has dipped again with this week’s poll finding it at +26% (down 3%). 46% say they approve of Rishi Sunak’s job performance, while 20% disapprove. Nevertheless, the Chancellor’s approval rating remains comfortably high.
Keir Starmer’s net approval rating stand at +7%, an increase of 2% since last week. 32% approve of Keir Starmer’s job performance since becoming Leader of the Labour Party, while 25% disapprove. A plurality (37%) of members of the public say their neither approve nor disapprove of his job performance.
Between Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer, 48% say they think Boris Johnson would be the better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom at this moment, a decrease of 2% from last week. 28% think Keir Starmer would be the better Prime Minister. Boris Johnson’s 20% lead is 3% lower than last week. Even so, Boris Johnson retains a substantial lead over Keir Starmer.
More specifically, Boris Johnson leads against Keir Starmer as best embodying the following descriptions: ‘can build a strong economy’ (47% to 29%), ‘knows how to get things done’ (43% to 29%), ‘stands up for the interests of the United Kingdom’ (46% to 30%), and ‘can tackle the coronavirus pandemic’ (45% to 25%). For the second week in a row, Boris Johnson holds a lead against Keir Starmer as best embodying someone who ‘cares about people like me’ (37% to 33%).
Until last week, Keir Starmer held a lead against Boris Johnson as the person who best embodies the description ‘represents change’ and the public are now divided: 37% favour Boris Johnson and 36% favour Keir Starmer.
Keir Starmer only leads as best embodying the description ‘is in good physical and mental health’ (38% to 32%), and his lead has narrowed.
On the question of who better embodies the description, ‘tells the truth,’ respondents are noticeably unsure (41%).
Even though the Chancellor has a considerably more favourable net approval rating compared to the Prime Minister, more members of the public think Boris Johnson (44%) would be the better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom at this moment than think Rishi Sunak (31%). Boris Johnson’s lead stands at +13%, a decrease of 4% since last week.
Rishi Sunak holds an 6% lead over Keir Starmer for the best Prime Minister at this moment, a decrease of 4% since last week. Between Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak, 37% think Rishi Sunak would be the better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom against 31% who think Keir Starmer would be.