Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest voting intention poll in Great Britain finds the Conservative Party leading by 2%––an decrease of 3% from last week’s poll and a return to the same slim lead from our poll one month ago. Altogether, the full numbers (with the changes from last week) are as follows:

Conservative 41% (-2)

Labour 39% (+1)

Liberal Democrat 8% (+1)

Scottish National Party 5% (–)

Green 5% (+1)

Reform UK 2% (–)

Plaid Cymru 0% (–)

Other 1% (–)

When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Conservatives lead by 2%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 17% of the sample said they do not know how they would vote, including 13% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019, 9% of those who voted Labour, and 25% of those who voted Liberal Democrat.

This week’s sample had 55% of respondents saying they would be ‘certain to vote’ if there were to be a General Election in the near future, when it is safe for an election to be held, a drop of 7% since last week. Those who voted Conservative in 2019 were noticeably more likely to say they were ‘certain to vote’ (70%) than those who had voted for Labour in 2019 (55%). Nevertheless, those that voted Conservative in 2019 are 5% less certain they will vote than last week, and those that voted Labour in 2019 are 10% less certain they will vote than last week.

Predictions as to who is most likely to win the highest number of seats in the next election has jumped slightly, with 42% now expecting the Conservative Party to win the highest number of seats (up 2% from last week) against 31% who think Labour will (down 1% from last week).

The Government’s Net Competency Rating has remained at -7% in this week’s poll. While still negative, this result is noticeably better than the -13% result from a poll conducted a fortnight ago. Altogether, 36% find the Government incompetent (down 2%) and 29% find the Government competent (down 2%). 28% find the Government neither incompetent nor incompetent (up 3%).

For the third occasion since early September and second week in a row, Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s net approval rating is positive at +2%. This week’s poll finds 39% approving of his overall job performance, against 37% disapproving.

Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak’s approval rating has also seen a moderate decrease yet remains high. 48% say they approve of Rishi Sunak’s job performance, while 18% disapprove, resulting in a net +30% approval rating (3% lower than last week’s poll).

Keir Starmer’s net approval rating stands at +7% (1% lower than last week’s poll). 30% approve of Keir Starmer’s job performance since becoming Leader of the Labour Party, while 23% disapprove. A plurality (39%) of members of the public say their neither approve nor disapprove of his job performance, an increase of 5% since last week, once again highlighting the public’s unfamiliarity with the Labour Leader.

Between Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer, 43% say they think Boris Johnson would be the better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom at this moment. 32% think Keir Starmer would be. Boris Johnson’s 11% lead is 2% lower than in last week’s poll.

Even though the Chancellor has a considerably more favourable net approval rating compared to the Prime Minister, more members of the public think Boris Johnson (38%) would be the better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom at this moment than think Rishi Sunak (30%). However, Boris Johnson’s lead over the Chancellor has decreased by 3% since last week.

Rishi Sunak holds a 5% lead over Keir Starmer for the best Prime Minister at this moment. Between Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak, 38% think Rishi Sunak would be the better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom against 33% who think Keir Starmer would be––a marginal 1% decrease in Sunak’s lead compared to last week.

Finally, Boris Johnson strong leads over Keir Starmer with respect to more specific areas have remained relatively unchanged. He leads on being most suited to “build a strong economy” (44% to 32%), “work with foreign leaders” (42% to 37%), “know how to get things done” (42% to 31%), stand up for the interests of the United Kingdom (45% to 33%), and, perhaps most importantly at this time, “tackle the coronavirus pandemic” (44% to 29%).

Keir Starmer “represents change” (39% to 35%), “cares about people like me” (37% to 31%) and appears to better fit the description “is in good physical and mental health” (43% to 27%).

A significant number of respondents continue to respond ‘don’t know’ when asked to select between the party leaders on the quality: tells the truth (42%).