Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest voting intention poll in Great Britain finds the Labour Party leading by 5%, a five-point decrease to their lead over the Conservatives in last week’s poll. Altogether, the full numbers (with the changes from 7 February in parentheses) are as follows: 

Labour 38% (-4)

Conservative 33% (+1)

Liberal Democrat 11% (+2)

Green 6% (–)

Reform UK 5% (+1)

Scottish National Party 4% (–)

Plaid Cymru 1% (–)

Other 2% (–)

When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Labour Party leads by 4%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 13% of the sample say they do not know how they would vote (down 2%), including 15% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 (down 1%) and 6% of those who voted Labour (no change).

Today’s sample has 54% of respondents saying they would be ‘certain to vote’ if there were to be a General Election tomorrow (down 2%). Those who voted Labour in 2019 (65%, down 1%) are more likely than those who voted Conservative (59%, down 7%) to say they are ‘certain to vote.’

Healthcare has returned to being the issue respondents consider most likely to determine how they would vote in the next General Election. When asked to select up to three issues which would most determine how they would vote in a General Election, if there were to be one tomorrow, respondents select healthcare (54%), the economy (50%), immigration (24%), education (24%), and taxation (23%).

Respondents are divided on whether a Labour Party majority (24%, no change) or a Conservative Party majority (24%, up 3%) would be the most likely outcome if a General Election were held in the next six months. 18% expect a Conservative-led minority Government (no change) and 11% expect a Labour-led minority Government (down 1%). 39% of 2019 Conservative Party voters think the Conservatives would achieve a majority (down 1%), while 49% of 2019 Labour voters expect that Labour would win a majority (up 7%).

The Government’s net competency rating is -29% in this week’s poll, increasing three points since last week. Altogether, 20% find the Government competent (up 1%), 49% find the Government incompetent (down 2%), and 24% find the Government neither competent nor incompetent (up 1%).

At -23%, Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s net approval rating has increased by three points compared to last week. This week’s poll finds 53% disapproving of his overall job performance (down 1%), against 30% approving (up 2%).

Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak’s net approval rating stands at +10%, a two-point increase from the lowest-ever net rating we recorded for Sunak last week. 40% say they approve of Rishi Sunak’s job performance (no change), while 30% disapprove (down 2%).

Keir Starmer’s net approval rating has fallen four points to -5% this week. 34% disapprove of Keir Starmer’s job performance (up 1%), while 29% approve (down 3%). Meanwhile, 31% neither approve nor disapprove of Starmer’s job performance (up 2%).

Keir Starmer continues to lead over Boris Johnson in terms of who would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment: 39% think Starmer (down 1%) and 35% think Johnson (up 2%) would be the better Prime Minister. 

Boris Johnson leads over Keir Starmer as being the one who best embodies the characteristics ‘can tackle the coronavirus pandemic’ (38% to 34%) and ‘knows how to get things done’ (36% to 34%). Respondents are divided on whether it is Starmer or Johnson who embodies ‘can build a strong economy’ (37% to 37%) and ‘can lead the UK out of the coronavirus pandemic’ (36% to 36%).

Starmer prevails over Johnson in all remaining areas, including significant leads when it comes to best embodying traits like ‘is in good physical and mental health’ (44% to 24%), ‘cares about people like me’ (40% to 23%), and ‘represents change’ (43% to 27%).

Meanwhile, pluralities continue to say they don’t know which of the two ‘tells the truth’ (48%), ‘prioritises the environment’ (44%), or ‘is creative’ (44%).

In a contest between the Chancellor of the Exchequer and the current Prime Minister, 41% say Rishi Sunak (up 1%) and 28% say Boris Johnson (down 1%) would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment. Among 2019 Conservative voters, 48% say Johnson (down 1%) and 35% say Sunak (up 1%) would be better.

Between Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak, Britons are equally as likely to think Starmer (38%, down 2%) and Sunak (38%, no change) would be the better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom.

To find out more information about this research contact our research team. Redfield & Wilton Strategies is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

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