Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest voting intention poll in Great Britain finds the Labour Party leading by 7%, 2 points higher as in last Monday’s poll. Altogether, the full numbers (with the changes from 7 August in parentheses) are as follows:
Labour 41% (+1)
Conservative 34% (-1)
Liberal Democrat 12% (–)
Green 5% (–)
Scottish National Party 4% (–)
Reform UK 3% (–)
Plaid Cymru 1% (–)
Other 2% (+1)
When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Labour Party leads by 6%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 13% of the sample says they do not know how they would vote, including 16% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 and 5% of those who voted Labour. Altogether, 85% of those who voted Labour in 2019 say they would vote Labour again, while 66% of those who voted Conservative say they would vote Conservative again.
Yesterday’s sample has 49% of respondents saying they would be ‘certain to vote’ if there were to be a General Election tomorrow. Those who voted Conservative in 2019 (58%) are more likely than those who voted Labour (53%) to say they are ‘certain to vote.’
After a week of intense media focus on rising energy bills and the cost-of-living crisis, the economy (62%) continues to be the most cited important issue respondents say would determine how they would vote, ahead of healthcare (51%). Respondents also select education (27%), taxation (25%) and immigration (22%).
A plurality (26%) of respondents believe a Labour Party majority would be the most likely outcome if a General Election were held in the next six months. 24% expect a Conservative Party majority, the highest share of the electorate to predict a Conservative majority in our polling since mid-April. A further 17% expect a Conservative-led minority Government, and 12% expect a Labour-led minority Government.
The Government’s net competency rating is -41% in this week’s poll—the lowest rating we’ve recorded on this question—down 7 points from last Sunday. Altogether, only 13% find the Government competent (–5), and 54% find the Government incompetent (+2).
Outgoing Prime Minister Boris Johnson receives a net approval rating of -20%, down 3 points from our poll last Sunday. Yesterday’s poll finds 51% disapproving of his overall job performance (+2), against 31% approving (–1).
Labour leader Keir Starmer’s net approval rating is also negative, standing at -4%, up 4 points from last Sunday. 29% approve of Starmer’s job performance (+3), while 33% disapprove (-1).
Despite Rishi Sunak basing his campaign for the Tory leadership on his claim to be the best placed Conservative to beat Keir Starmer in a General Election, Starmer (41%, +1) leads Sunak (34%, –) by a margin of 7 points on who would be the better Prime Minister at this moment.
Finally, increasing a lead she first achieved in our polling in late July, Liz Truss (41%, +3) leads Keir Starmer (37%, +2) by 4 points on who would be the better Prime Minister at this moment.