Latest GB Voting Intention (14-17 June 2024)

June 17, 2024
R&WS Research Team
Approval Rating | Conservative Party | GB Politics | Keir Starmer | Labour Party | Rishi Sunak | UK Elections | Voting Intention

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Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest national Westminster voting intention poll, our fourth since the UK General Election was called for 4 July,  finds the Labour Party leading by 25%, one point more than in our previous poll released on Thursday last week

The Conservatives’ vote share in this poll (18%) is unchanged from last week and therefore ties the lowest ever in our polling in this Parliament, one point lower than their worst under Truss, 19% on 19 October 2022, the day before Liz Truss announced her resignation.

Conversely, at 18%, Reform UK achieve their highest ever vote share in our polling, one point up from the 17% they achieved last week

Our poll was conducted amongst an extra-large sample of 10,000 voters across Great Britain from Friday 14 June to Monday 17 June, with additional intra-regional weightings.

Altogether, the full numbers (with changes from 12-13 June in parenthesis) are as follows:

Labour 43% (+1)
Reform UK 18% (+1)
Conservative 18% (–)
Liberal Democrat 12% (-1)
Green 5% (–)
Scottish National Party 3% (–)
Other 1% (–)

When those who say they do not know how they will vote in the General Election are included, the Labour Party leads by 22%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 9% of the sample say they do not know how they will vote, including 11% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 and just 2% of those who voted Labour.

Altogether, 82% of those who voted Labour in the last General Election say they will vote Labour again. 

Only 38% of those who voted Conservative in 2019 say they will now vote Conservative again. 27% of 2019 Conservative voters now say they will vote for Reform UK—just two points below the highest ever figure in our polling—while 18% will vote for Labour.

When broken down by gender (and still including undecided voters), Labour enjoys a 20-point lead over the Conservatives among men and a 24-point lead among women.

39% of men say they will vote for Labour, while marginally more men say they will vote Conservative (19%) than say they will vote for Reform UK (18%).

39% of women say they will vote for Labour. 15% of women say they will vote Conservative, while the same percentage (15%) say they will vote Reform.

Support for Reform UK and for the Conservatives is notably higher among men (37% combined) than it is among women (30% combined). Notably, women remain six points more likely to be undecided about how they would vote if a General Election were held tomorrow (12%) than men are (6%).

Breaking down our sample by age, Labour holds a lead over the Conservatives among every age group.

Labour’s margin over the Conservatives ranges from 43 points among those aged 18-24 (51% vs 8%) to five points with those aged over 65 (28% vs 23%).

Reform UK beats the Conservatives into third place with voters aged 45-54 (18% to 14%) and 55-64 (22% to 19%), while also attracting the support of one-fifth (20%) of voters aged over 65.

Among voters aged 18-24, the Conservatives are in a tie for fourth place with the Green Party (8% each).

58% of British voters cite the economy as among the three most important issues that would determine how they would vote in a General Election, ahead of healthcare (55%). Respondents also select immigration (40%, a joint highest figure), housing (24%), and policing and crime (18%).

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak receives a net approval rating of -24%, up three points from last week. This week’s poll finds 27% approving of his overall job performance (+1) against 51% (-2) disapproving.

Labour leader Keir Starmer’s net approval rating stands at +14%, up two points from last week. 42% approve of Starmer’s job performance (+1), while 28% disapprove (-1).

Finally, Keir Starmer (48%, +1) leads Rishi Sunak (25%, -1) by 23 points on who would be the better Prime Minister at this moment

This latest result is the widest lead Starmer has ever held over Sunak on this question, the highest percentage to say Keir Starmer would be a better Prime Minister than Rishi Sunak, and the joint-lowest percentage of respondents to say Rishi Sunak would be better than Keir Starmer that we have recorded in our tracker polling.

Given the extent of Labour’s lead in the Voting Intention polling and the decline in the Conservative’s support, another contest in this election may be who ought to be the next Opposition Leader.

In our latest poll, Nigel Farage (31%, +3) leads both Rishi Sunak (24%, -3) and a nameless, next Conservative Party leader (26%) for who would be the best Opposition Leader.

To find out more information about this research contact our research team. Redfield & Wilton Strategies is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Follow us on Twitter

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