Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest voting intention poll in Great Britain finds the Conservative Party leading by 4%—a decrease of 5% from last week’s poll. Altogether, the full numbers (with the changes from last week in parentheses) are as follows:

Conservative 39% (-2)

Labour 35% (+3)

Liberal Democrat 9% (-2)

Green 6% (–)

Reform UK 5% (+1)

Scottish National Party 4% (–)

Plaid Cymru 1% (–)

Other 2% (–)

When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Conservatives also lead by 4%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 11% of the sample say they do not know how they would vote, including 10% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 and 5% of those who voted Labour.

This week’s sample had 57% of respondents saying they would be ‘certain to vote’ if there were to be a General Election tomorrow. Those who voted Conservative in 2019 (70%) are more likely to say they are ‘certain to vote’ than those who voted for Labour in 2019 (58%).

Healthcare remains the issue respondents consider most likely to determine how they would vote in the next General Election. When asked to select up to three issues which would most determine how they would vote in a General Election, if there were to be one tomorrow, respondents select healthcare (49%), the economy (39%), immigration (29%), education (23%), the environment (21%), and coronavirus restrictions (20%).

If a General Election were to take place in the next six months, 36% of respondents expect the outcome to be a Conservative Party majority (down 2%). 20% expect a Labour Party majority (up 4%), 16% expect a Conservative Party-led minority Government (up 2%), and 6% expect a Labour Party-led minority Government (down 1%). 60% of 2019 Conservative Party voters think the Conservatives would achieve a majority (down 5%), whereas 48% of 2019 Labour voters expect that Labour would win a majority (up 6%).

The Government’s net competency rating is -11% in this week’s poll, a 1% increase from last week. Altogether, 28% find the Government competent (up 2%), 39% find the Government incompetent (up 1%), and 22% find the Government neither competent nor incompetent (down 3%).

Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s net approval rating stands at -4%, a figure that has not changed in the past week. This week’s poll finds 42% disapproving (up 1%) of his overall job performance, against 38% approving (up 1%).

Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak receives a net approval rating of +13% (down 3%), which is the lowest net approval rating we have recorded for Sunak. 41% say they approve of Rishi Sunak’s job performance (no change), while 28% disapprove (up 3%).

Keir Starmer’s net approval rating stands at -18%, an 8% decrease from last week—tying for the lowest net approval rating we have recorded for Starmer. 42% disapprove of Keir Starmer’s job performance (up 5%), while 24% approve (down 3%). Meanwhile, 29% neither approve nor disapprove of Starmer’s job performance (down 2%).

Between Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer, 44% say they think Boris Johnson would be a better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom at this moment than Keir Starmer, a figure which has increased from 42% last week. Conversely, 27% think Keir Starmer would be the better Prime Minister when compared to Boris Johnson (down 3%).

More specifically, Boris Johnson continues to lead over Keir Starmer as being the one who best embodies the following descriptions: ‘can build a strong economy’ (44% to 29%), ‘stands up for the interests of the United Kingdom’ (42% to 31%), ‘can work with foreign leaders’ (42% to 32%), and ‘knows how to get things done’ (41% to 27%).

Keir Starmer leads over Boris Johnson when it comes to best embodying the descriptions of ‘being in good physical and mental health’ (37% to 29%) and ‘is willing to work with other parties when possible’ (35% to 33%).

When asked to assess whether Boris Johnson or Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham would be a better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment, 45% think Boris Johnson would be the better Prime Minister (up 2%), against 27% who think Andy Burnham would be (down 1%).

Further, 36% say Boris Johnson (up 1%) and 30% say Rishi Sunak (down 2%) would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment.

Rishi Sunak holds a 9% lead over Keir Starmer for the best Prime Minister at this moment, a one-point increase since last week. Between Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak, 40% think Rishi Sunak would be the better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom (up 1%), against 31% who think Keir Starmer would be (no change).