Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest voting intention poll in Great Britain finds the Labour Party leading by 3%, the same margin as in last week’s poll. Altogether, the full numbers (with the changes from 7 March in parentheses) are as follows: 

Labour 39% (-1)

Conservative 36% (-1)

Liberal Democrat 10% (–)

Green 6% (+1)

Scottish National Party 4% (–)

Reform UK 4% (+2)

Plaid Cymru 1% (+1)

Other 2% (+1)

When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Labour Party leads by 3%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 13% of the sample says they do not know how they would vote (down 2%), including 13% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 (down 2%) and 7% of those who voted Labour (down 1%).

This week’s sample has 54% of respondents saying they would be ‘certain to vote’ if there were to be a General Election tomorrow (down 3%). Those who voted Conservative in 2019 (68%, no change) are more likely than those who voted Labour (58%, down 2%) to say they are ‘certain to vote.’

Healthcare remains the issue respondents consider most likely to determine how they would vote in the next General Election. When asked to select up to three issues which would most determine how they would vote in a General Election, if there were to be one tomorrow, respondents select healthcare (52%), the economy (49%), education (26%), immigration (26%), housing (22%), and the environment (19%).

A plurality (27%) of respondents believe a Conservative Party majority would be the most likely outcome if a General Election were held in the next six months (up 1%). 23% expect a Labour Party majority (no change), 16% expect a Conservative-led minority Government (no change), and 10% expect a Labour-led minority Government (up 1%). 49% of 2019 Conservative Party voters think the Conservatives would achieve a majority (no change), while 47% of 2019 Labour voters expect that Labour would win a majority (down 1%).

The Government’s net competency rating is -28% in this week’s poll, decreasing by 11 points since last week. Altogether, 21% find the Government competent (down 6%), 49% find the Government incompetent (up 5%), and 23% find the Government neither competent nor incompetent (no change).

Prime Minister Boris Johnson receives a net approval rating of -12%, decreasing by 5 points in the past week. This week’s poll finds 46% disapproving of his overall job performance (up 2%), against 34% approving (down 3%).

Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak’s net approval rating stands at +6%, dropping 9 points from last week. 37% say they approve of Rishi Sunak’s job performance (down 4%), while 31% disapprove (up 5%).

Keir Starmer’s net approval rating is positive for the first time since 19 April 2021. 32% approve of Keir Starmer’s job performance (up 3%), while 30% disapprove (down 2%), giving him a net approval rating of +2%. Meanwhile, 31% neither approve nor disapprove of Starmer’s job performance (down 1%).

Boris Johnson (39%, no change) has maintained his lead over Keir Starmer (36%, up 1%) in terms of who Britons think would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment.

Boris Johnson leads over Keir Starmer as being the one who best embodies the characteristics ‘can tackle the coronavirus pandemic’ (38% to 32%),  ‘can build a strong economy’ (37% to 36%), and  ‘knows how to get things done’ (35% to 34%). 

Starmer now is seen as best embodying the traits ‘can work with foreign leaders’ (39% to 36%), ‘stands up for the interests of the UK’ (37% to 36%), and ‘can bring British people together’ (39% to 35%).

Meanwhile, pluralities indicate they don’t know which of the two ‘is creative’ (43%), ‘tells the truth’ (47%), ‘prioritises the environment’ (44%), or ‘has the better foreign policy strategy’ (38%).

In a contest between the Chancellor of the Exchequer and the current Prime Minister, 33% say Rishi Sunak (no change) and 34% say Boris Johnson (up 1%) would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment, while a further 32% say they don’t know (down 2%). These results represent the first time that Johnson has led, however narrowly, over Sunak in this respect since 21 November.

Rishi Sunak has maintained a two-point lead over Keir Starmer for the better Prime Minister at this moment. Between Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer, 37% think Sunak would be the better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom (no change%), against 35% who think Starmer would be (no change%).