Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest voting intention poll in Great Britain finds the Conservative Party leading by 10%—an increase of 3% from last week’s poll and a 1% decrease from our poll two weeks ago. Altogether, the full numbers (with the changes from last week in parentheses) are as follows:
Conservative 44% (+1)
Labour 34% (-2)
Liberal Democrat 9% (+2)
Scottish National Party 4% (-1)
Green 5% (–)
Reform UK 2% (+1)
Plaid Cymru 0% (–)
Other 1% (-1)
When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Conservatives also lead by 9%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 13% of the sample said they do not know how they would vote, including 9% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 and 10% of those who voted Labour.
This week’s sample had 60% of respondents saying they would be ‘certain to vote’ if there were to be a General Election in the near future, when it is safe for an election to be held. Those who voted Conservative in 2019 (74%) are more likely to say they are ‘certain to vote’ than those who voted for Labour in 2019 (60%).
Predictions as to who is most likely to win the highest number of seats in the next General Election have not changed significantly in the past week: 48% expect the Conservative Party to win the highest number of seats (no change) against 22% who think Labour (down 2%). 79% of 2019 Conservative voters are confident of a Conservative victory, whereas 56% of 2019 Labour voters are confident of a Labour victory.
The Government’s Net Competency Rating stands at -5% in this week’s poll, a 1% decrease from last week. Altogether, 31% find the Government competent (down 1%), 36% find the Government incompetent (no change), and 25% find the Government neither competent nor incompetent (no change).
Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s net approval rating stands this time at +7%, a two-point decrease from last week. This week’s poll finds 43% approving of his overall job performance (no change) against 36% disapproving (up 2%).
Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak’s approval rating has not changed meaningfully, with this week’s poll finding it at +27% (down 1%). 46% say they approve of Rishi Sunak’s job performance (no change), while 19% disapprove (up 1%).
Keir Starmer’s net approval rating stands at -6%, a two-point increase from last week. 31% disapprove of Keir Starmer’s job performance (down 3%), while 25% approve (down 1%). Meanwhile, 37% neither approve nor disapprove of Starmer’s job performance.
Between Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer, 47% say they think Boris Johnson would be a better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom at this moment than Keir Starmer, a figure which is only 1% lower from last week. Conversely, 28% think Keir Starmer would be the better Prime Minister when compared to Boris Johnson, a figure which has increased by 3%.
More specifically, Boris Johnson continues to lead over Keir Starmer as being the one who best embodies the following descriptions: ‘can build a strong economy’ (46% to 28%), ‘knows how to get things done’ (44% to 28%), ‘stands up for the interests of the United Kingdom’ (47% to 29%), and ‘can tackle the coronavirus pandemic’ (43% to 27%).
Keir Starmer leads when it comes to best embodying the description of ‘being in good physical and mental health’ (41% to 29%), ‘caring about people like me’ (35% to 32%), and ‘willing to work with other parties when possible’ (35% to 34%)
Although the Chancellor has a considerably more favourable net approval rating compared to the Prime Minister, more respondents think Boris Johnson (39%, down 4%) would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment than think Rishi Sunak (31%, up 3%).
Rishi Sunak holds a 14% lead over Keir Starmer for the best Prime Minister at this moment, a slight decrease of 2% since last week. Between Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak, 43% think Rishi Sunak would be the better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom against 29% who think Keir Starmer would be.