Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest voting intention poll in Great Britain finds the Labour Party leading by 5%, a 1% increase to their lead over the Conservatives in Wednesday’s poll. This poll’s results mark Labour’s largest lead since we began tracking voting intention following the 2019 General Election, alongside the lowest voting intention result we have recorded for the Conservative Party in the same time frame. Altogether, the full numbers (with the changes from 8 December in parentheses) are as follows: 

Labour 37% (-1)

Conservative 32% (-2)

Liberal Democrat 11% (–)

Green 7% (+1)

Reform UK 7% (+2)

Scottish National Party 4% (–)

Plaid Cymru 0% (–)

Other 1% (–)

When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Labour Party leads by 4%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 17% of the sample say they do not know how they would vote, including 20% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 and 7% of those who voted Labour. This variance reaffirms that recent leads for Labour are primarily driven by previous Conservative voters now saying they are undecided, though a sizable 8% of 2019 Conservative voters now say they would vote for Labour and another 8% say they would vote for Reform UK.

Today’s sample has 52% of respondents saying they would be ‘certain to vote’ if there were to be a General Election tomorrow. Those who voted Conservative in 2019 (59%) are marginally more likely to say they are ‘certain to vote’ than those who voted for Labour in 2019 (58%).

Healthcare remains the issue respondents consider most likely to determine how they would vote in the next General Election. When asked to select up to three issues which would most determine how they would vote in a General Election, if there were to be one tomorrow, respondents select healthcare (53%), the economy (42%), immigration (33%), coronavirus restrictions (27%), education (25%), and the environment (22%).

If a General Election were to take place in the next six months, 27% of respondents expect the outcome to be a Conservative Party majority (down 8% since our poll last Monday). 22% expect a Labour majority (up 4%), 17% expect a Conservative-led minority Government (no change), and 9% expect a Labour-led minority Government (up 3%). 51% of 2019 Conservative Party voters think the Conservatives would achieve a majority (down 6%), whereas 49% of 2019 Labour voters expect that Labour would win a majority (up 6%).

The Government’s net competency rating is -29% in this week’s poll, decreasing ten points since last Monday and representing the lowest net competency rating we have recorded since we began tracking this question in August 2020. Altogether, 20% find the Government competent (down 4%), 49% find the Government incompetent (up 6%), and 24% find the Government neither competent nor incompetent (down 1%).

Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s net approval rating stands at -22%, a figure which has decreased 12 points to the lowest net approval rating we have recorded for Johnson. This week’s poll finds 51% disapproving (up 5%) of his overall job performance, against 29% approving (down 7%). Among those who voted Conservative in 2019, marginally more now ‘strongly disapprove’ (13%) of Johnson’s performance than ‘strongly approve’ (14%).

Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak receives a net approval rating of +15%, representing a two-point decrease compared to last week. 41% say they approve of Rishi Sunak’s job performance (down 1%), while 26% disapprove (up 1%).

Keir Starmer’s net approval rating has increased by two points in the past week, now standing at -8%. 35% disapprove of Keir Starmer’s job performance (down 1%), while 27% approve (up 1%). Meanwhile, 33% neither approve nor disapprove of Starmer’s job performance (no change).

35% say they think Keir Starmer (up 3%) and 34% say they think Boris Johnson (down 7%) would be a better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom at this moment. These results mark the first time we have found Starmer lead over Johnson in this regard since we began asking this question in June 2020.

Boris Johnson continues to lead over Keir Starmer as being the one who best embodies the following descriptions: ‘can build a strong economy’ (38% to 31%), ‘stands up for the interests of the United Kingdom’ (36% to 34%), and ‘knows how to get things done’ (34% to 32%). However, the proportion of respondents who believe Johnson best embodies these descriptions has decreased by six points in each of the three areas compared to last week.

Keir Starmer leads over Boris Johnson when it comes to best embodying the descriptions of ‘being in good physical and mental health’ (43% to 24%), ‘represents change’ (40% to 28%), and ‘is willing to work with other parties when possible’ (40% to 26%). For the first time we have recorded, Starmer also now leads over Johnson for ‘understands the problems afflicting the UK’ (38% to 30%).

Meanwhile, pluralities of respondents now say they do not know which of the two ‘cares about people like me’ (40%), ‘can tackle the coronavirus pandemic’ (38%) or ‘is a strong leader’ (37%).

Further, 37% say Rishi Sunak (up 4%) and 29% say Boris Johnson (down 4%) would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment, the highest proportion to say Sunak since October 2020.

Rishi Sunak holds a five-point lead over Keir Starmer for the better Prime Minister at this moment. Between Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak, 39% think Rishi Sunak would be the better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom (no change), against 34% who think Keir Starmer would be (up 1%).

To find out more information about this research contact our research team. Redfield & Wilton Strategies is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

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