Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest voting intention poll in Great Britain finds the Conservative Party leading by 8%—a decrease of 1% from last week’s poll. Altogether, the full numbers (with the changes from last week in parentheses) are as follows:

Conservative 41% (-2)

Labour 33% (-1)

Liberal Democrat 12% (+4)

Green 6% (–)

Scottish National Party 4% (–)

Reform UK 3% (-1)

Plaid Cymru 0% (-1)

Other 1% (–)

When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Conservatives lead by 7%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 13% of the sample said they do not know how they would vote, including 12% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 and 6% of those who voted Labour.

This week’s sample had 59% of respondents saying they would be ‘certain to vote’ if there were to be a General Election tomorrow. Those who voted Conservative in 2019 (72%) are more likely to say they are ‘certain to vote’ than those who voted for Labour in 2019 (57%).

Predictions as to who is most likely to win the highest number of seats in the next General Election have changed slightly in the past week: 45% expect the Conservative Party to win the highest number of seats (up 4%) against 23% who think Labour (down 3%). 75% of 2019 Conservative voters are confident of a Conservative victory (up 3%), whereas 54% of 2019 Labour voters are confident of a Labour victory (down 7%).

The Government’s Net Competency Rating stands at -9% in this week’s poll, a 3% decrease from last week. Altogether, 30% find the Government competent (no change), 39% find the Government incompetent (up 3%), and 24% find the Government neither competent nor incompetent (down 1%).

Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s net approval rating stands at 0%, a two-point decrease from last week. This week’s poll finds 39% approving (no change) of his overall job performance against 39% disapproving (up 2%).

Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak’s approval rating has decreased, with this week’s poll finding it at +26% (down 9%). 46% say they approve of Rishi Sunak’s job performance (down 3%), while 20% disapprove (up 6%).

Keir Starmer’s net approval rating stands at -11%, a one-point decrease from last week. 35% disapprove of Keir Starmer’s job performance (up 1%), while 24% approve (no change). Meanwhile, 35% neither approve nor disapprove of Starmer’s job performance (up 1%).

Between Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer, 43% say they think Boris Johnson would be a better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom at this moment than Keir Starmer, a figure which is one point lower than last week. Conversely, 29% think Keir Starmer would be the better Prime Minister when compared to Boris Johnson.

More specifically, Boris Johnson continues to lead over Keir Starmer as being the one who best embodies the following descriptions: ‘can build a strong economy’ (44% to 28%), ‘knows how to get things done’ (44% to 26%), ‘stands up for the interests of the United Kingdom’ (46% to 31%), and ‘can tackle the coronavirus pandemic’ (40% to 27%).

Keir Starmer continues to lead when it comes to best embodying the description of ‘being in good physical and mental health’ (41% to 28%), ‘is willing to work with other parties when possible’ (36% to 32%), and ‘represents change’ (35% to 34%).

38% say Boris Johnson (up 1%) and 32% say Rishi Sunak (down 1%) would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment.

Rishi Sunak holds a 16% lead (up 2%) over Keir Starmer for the best Prime Minister at this moment, a two-point increase since last week. Between Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak, 43% think Rishi Sunak would be the better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom against 27% who think Keir Starmer would be.

To find out more information about this research contact our research team. Redfield & Wilton Strategies is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

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