Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest GB voting intention poll from yesterday finds the Conservative Party leading by 7%. Compared to our previous voting intention poll on the 29th of July, this result represents a 2% gain in the lead held by the Conservative Party. At the same time, this result is a slight 1% decrease from the Conservative Party’s 8% lead on the 22nd July. These two fluctuations fall within the margin of error of the polls, indicating how the Conservative lead has remained stable in recent weeks. The full numbers for our voting intention poll (with their changes from 29 July in parentheses) are as follows:
Conservative 43% (–)
Labour 36% (-2)
Liberal Democrat 9% (+2)
Scottish National Party 4% (–)
Green 4% (–)
Plaid Cymru 0% (–)
Other 3% (–)
Likelihood to vote remained relatively constant from last week, with 62% saying they would be certain to vote in the event of a general election in the near future. This figure is slightly higher than the 61% from two weeks ago, yet the difference again falls within the margin of error.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson saw his approval rating remain at a net +9%, with 45% saying they approve of his job performance since becoming Prime Minister and 36% saying they disapprove. The stabilisation of the Prime Minister’s approval rating over the last fortnight contrasts with the significant movement we had observed across several weeks prior: Johnson’s approval rating was +10% four weeks ago, only to fall back to net +5% three weeks ago, and then to rise again to +9% a fortnight ago.
Meanwhile, the net approval rating for Labour Leader Keir Starmer rose by 5%, following a 3% decline in his net approval rating in our previous poll on 29 July. This week, Starmer’s approval rating stands at a net +16%, yet this is nonetheless lower than his net +22% approval rating five weeks ago. Moreover, the public continues to remain unfamiliar with the Labour Leader: 34% of the public neither approve nor disapprove of the Starmer’s job performance.
Johnson now leads Starmer by 14% in a straight contest over who would be the best Prime Minister of the UK. This result represents a 2% decrease from a fortnight ago in Johnson’s lead over Starmer, but it is virtually equal to his 15% lead three weeks ago.
Chancellor Rishi Sunak’s approval rating rose by 3% this week and is now at net +37% approval. The rise in Sunak’s approval may be linked to the popularity of the Treasury’s “Eat Out to Help Out” scheme. A majority (52%) continues to approve of Sunak’s job performance, with only 15% saying they disapprove. Similar to Starmer, Sunak’s relatively recent appointment translates into 28% saying they neither approve nor disapprove of his job performance.
A fortnight ago, Johnson had an 8% advantage over Sunak in a straight contest over who would be the better Prime Minister for the UK. The lead has decreased by 5% this week, and Johnson now has an 3% advantage over Sunak in a straight contest over who would be the better Prime Minister for the UK. 39% selected Boris Johnson and 36% selected Rishi Sunak.
Sunak’s lead in a straight contest with Starmer now stands at 16%, a 5% rise on his 11% lead a fortnight ago. 46% of respondents selected Sunak and 30% selected Starmer. Thus, even though the Chancellor trails the Prime Minister when it comes to who respondents think would be the best Prime Minister, the Labour Leader remains considerably behind both the Prime Minister and the Chancellor.
With the Prime Minister’s approval rating having stabilised in recent weeks, it is now the Chancellor who is experiencing a slight yet noticeable increase in his popularity. Whereas the Eat Out to Help Out scheme has proven to be popular, approval of the Chancellor’s job performance will be tested once the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme is phased out and the economic impact of the pandemic becomes clearer.