Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest voting intention poll in Great Britain finds the Conservative Party leading by 7%—a decrease of 3% from last week’s poll. Altogether, the full numbers (with the changes from last week in parentheses) are as follows:

Conservative 43% (-1)

Labour 36% (+2)

Liberal Democrat 7% (-2)

Green 5% (–)

Scottish National Party 4% (–)

Reform UK 3% (+1)

Plaid Cymru 1% (+1)

Other 2% (–)

When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Conservatives lead by 5%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 13% of the sample said they do not know how they would vote, including 8% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019, 7% of those who voted Labour, and a notable 25% of those who voted Liberal Democrat.

This week’s sample had 58% of respondents saying they would be ‘certain to vote’ if there were to be a General Election in the near future, when it is safe for an election to be held, a 7% increase since last week. Those who voted Conservative in 2019 were more likely to say they were ‘certain to vote’ (74%) than those who voted for Labour in 2019 (59%).

Predictions as to who is most likely to win the highest number of seats in the next election have widened slightly: 43% expect the Conservative Party to win the highest number of seats (up 2% from last week) against 26% who think Labour (down 1%). Those who say they would now vote Conservative are still substantially more confident of a Conservative victory (86%) than those who say they would now vote Labour are confident of a Labour victory (66%).

The Government’s Net Competency Rating stands at -1% in this week’s poll, a 1% improvement since last week. Altogether, 33% find the Government incompetent (the same as last week), 32% find the Government competent (up 1%), and 27% find the Government neither incompetent nor competent.

For the tenth week in a row, Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s net approval rating is positive––this time at +9%, though this represents a 6% decrease since last week. This week’s poll finds 43% approving of his overall job performance, against 34% disapproving.

Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak’s approval rating is relatively unchanged, with this week’s poll finding it at +31% (up 2%). 49% say they approve of Rishi Sunak’s job performance, while 18% disapprove.

Keir Starmer’s net approval rating stands at +2%, a repeat of the last two weeks’ results (tied for the second-lowest approval rating ever for Keir Starmer). 29% approve of Keir Starmer’s job performance since becoming Leader of the Labour Party, while 27% disapprove. A plurality (37%) of members of the public neither approve nor disapprove of Starmer’s job performance.

Between Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer, 47% say they think Boris Johnson would be a better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom at this moment than Keir Starmer. Meanwhile, 28% think Keir Starmer would be the better Prime Minister when compared to Boris Johnson.

More specifically, Boris Johnson continues to lead Keir Starmer as being the one who best embodies the following descriptions: ‘can build a strong economy’ (47% to 27%), ‘knows how to get things done’ (45% to 28%), ‘stands up for the interests of the United Kingdom’ (48% to 29%), and ‘can tackle the coronavirus pandemic’ (46% to 26%).

The public is evenly split on the question of who ‘represents change,’ with 36% saying Keir Starmer and 36% saying Boris Johnson. There is also division on whether Boris Johnson (33%) or Keir Starmer (33%) best embodies someone who ‘cares about people like me.’

Keir Starmer continues to lead only when it comes to best embodying the description ‘is in good physical and mental health’ (41% to 30%).

Although the Chancellor has a considerably more favourable net approval rating compared to the Prime Minister, more members of the public think Boris Johnson (43%) would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment than think Rishi Sunak (27%).

Rishi Sunak holds a 10% lead over Keir Starmer for the best Prime Minister at this moment, a decrease of 2% since last week. Between Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak, 40% think Rishi Sunak would be the better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom against 30% who think Keir Starmer would be.

To find out more information about this research contact our research team. Redfield & Wilton Strategies is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

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