Latest GB Voting Intention (11 February 2024)

February 12, 2024
R&WS Research Team
Approval Rating | Conservative Party | GB Politics | Keir Starmer | Labour Party | Rishi Sunak | UK Elections | Voting Intention

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Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest national Westminster Voting Intention poll finds the Labour Party leading by 25%, four points more than in our previous poll released on Monday last week.

This poll marks the largest lead Labour has recorded over the Conservatives since 5 March 2023 (when it was 26%). 

At 21%, the Conservatives have recorded their lowest vote share in our Westminster Voting Intention polling with Rishi Sunak as Prime Minister. The Conservative Party previously recorded 21% on 23 October 2022, in our final poll with Liz Truss as Prime Minister.

Altogether, the full numbers (with changes from 4 February in parenthesis) are as follows:

Labour 46% (+1)
Conservative 21% (-3)
Reform UK 12% (–)
Liberal Democrat 11% (+2)
Green 5% (+1)
Scottish National Party 3% (–)
Other 2% (–)

When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Labour Party leads by 21%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 12% of the sample say they do not know how they would vote, including 11% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 and 5% of those who voted Labour. 

Only 44% of those who voted Conservative in 2019 say they would vote Conservative again—the lowest percentage recorded since Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister and just six points higher than the lowest percentage (37%) we’ve ever recorded (16 October 2022).

21% of 2019 Conservative voters in this week’s poll now say they would vote for Labour if a General Election were held tomorrow—the highest percentage to say they would vote for Labour since 13 August 2023 (also 21%)—while 19% would vote for Reform UK.

59% of British voters cite both the economy and healthcare as among the three most important issues that would determine how they would vote in a General Election. Respondents also select immigration (34%), education (23%), and housing (21%).

42% of respondents believe a Labour Party majority would be the most likely outcome if a General Election were held in the next six months. A further 13% expect a Labour-led minority Government. Only 14% expect a Conservative Party majority, while another 9% expect a Conservative-led minority Government.

The Government’s net competency rating stands at -34% this week. Altogether, 18% find the Government competent (-2), while 52% find the Government incompetent (+3).

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak receives a net approval rating of -25%, down seven points from last week’s poll, and the lowest approval rating Sunak has ever recorded in our polling as either Prime Minister or Chancellor of the Exchequer

This week’s poll finds 25% approving of his overall job performance (-4) against 50% (+3) disapproving.

Labour leader Keir Starmer’s net approval rating stands at +9%, up two points from last week. 39% approve of Starmer’s job performance (+1), while 30% disapprove (-1).

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s net approval rating stands at -11%, down one point from our previous poll. Overall, 35% disapprove of Hunt’s performance as Chancellor (–) and 24% approve (-1).

And finally, Keir Starmer (45%, –) leads Rishi Sunak (29%, –) by 16 points on who would be the better Prime Minister at this moment, just one point less than Starmer’s record lead over Sunak since the latter became Prime Minister, recorded on 3 September 2023.

To find out more information about this research contact our research team. Redfield & Wilton Strategies is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Follow us on Twitter

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