Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest voting intention poll in Great Britain finds the Labour Party leading by 17%, five points less than in our most recent poll released on Monday last week. Altogether, the full numbers (with the changes from 4 December in parentheses) are as follows:
Labour 46% (-2)
Conservative 29% (+3)
Liberal Democrat 9% (-1)
Reform UK 7% (+2)
Green 5% (-1)
Scottish National Party 3% (–)
Other 2% (+1)
When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Labour Party leads by 15%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 12% of the sample say they do not know how they would vote, including 16% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 and 3% of those who voted Labour.
Altogether, 89% of those who voted Labour in the last General Election say they would vote Labour again, while 57% of those who voted Conservative in 2019 say they would vote Conservative again.
65% of British voters cite the economy as one of the three most important issues that would determine how they would vote in a General Election, ahead of healthcare (55%). Respondents also select immigration (30%), the environment (20%), and education (19%).
A plurality (40%) of respondents believe a Labour Party majority would be the most likely outcome if a General Election were held in the next six months. Just 14% expect a Conservative Party majority. A further 12% expect a Conservative-led minority Government, and 11% expect a Labour-led minority Government.
The Government’s net competency rating stands at -26% this week, up two points from the previous Sunday. Altogether, 19% find the Government competent (+1), and 45% find the Government incompetent (-1).
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak receives a net approval rating of -3%, unchanged from our poll on the previous Sunday. Yesterday’s poll finds 30% approving of his overall job performance (–) against 33% (–) disapproving.
Labour leader Keir Starmer’s net approval rating stands at +10%, down one point from last week. 37% approve of Starmer’s job performance (–), while 27% disapprove (+1). Starmer last held a negative net approval rating on 7 September, more than three months ago.
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s net approval rating stands at -9%, up five points since the previous Sunday. Overall, 35% disapprove of Hunt’s performance as Chancellor (–), and 26% approve (+5).
And finally, Keir Starmer (39%, -1) leads Rishi Sunak (36%, –) by three points on who would be the better Prime Minister at this moment.