Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest voting intention poll in Great Britain finds the Labour Party leading by 2% in the Party’s first lead since November 2020, after being one point behind the Conservatives in Monday’s poll. Altogether, the full numbers (with the changes from 8 November in parentheses) are as follows: 

Labour 38% (+2)

Conservative 36% (-1)

Liberal Democrat 10% (–)

Green 6% (–)

Scottish National Party 4% (-1)

Reform UK 3% (-2)

Plaid Cymru 0% (–)

Other 1% (–)

When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, Labour also leads by 2%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 12% of the sample say they do not know how they would vote, including 13% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 and 5% of those who voted Labour.

Today’s sample has 51% of respondents saying they would be ‘certain to vote’ if there were to be a General Election tomorrow. Following likely Labour voters’ lead in certainty to vote in Monday’s poll, those who say they would vote Conservative (65%) are now more likely than those who say they would vote Labour (58%) to indicate that they would be ‘certain to vote.’

Will Labour hold on to or extend its lead over the Conservatives? Check out our next voting intention poll being released on Monday at 5pm to find out!