Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest voting intention poll in Great Britain finds the Conservative Party leading by 11%—an increase of 9% from last week’s poll. Altogether, the full numbers (with the changes from last week in parentheses) are as follows:

Conservative 45% (+5)

Labour 34% (-4)

Liberal Democrat 8% (+1)

Scottish National Party 4% (–)

Green 5% (–)

Reform UK 2% (-1)

Plaid Cymru 0% (-1)

Other 2% (+1)

When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Conservatives also lead by 11%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 13% of the sample said they do not know how they would vote, including 7% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019, 5% of those who voted Labour, and 16% of those who voted Liberal Democrat.

This week’s sample had 51% of respondents saying they would be ‘certain to vote’ if there were to be a General Election in the near future, when it is safe for an election to be held—a decrease of 7% since last week. Those who voted Conservative in 2019 (70%) were more likely to say they were ‘certain to vote’ than those who voted for Labour in 2019 (54%)—a much greater gap than the seven-point difference we saw last week.  

Predictions as to who is most likely to win the highest number of seats in the next General Election have changed significantly in the past week: 48% expect the Conservative Party to win the highest number of seats (up 10% from last week) against 24% who think Labour (down 4%). This represents the highest ever result for the Conservatives and lowest ever result for Labour. 85% of 2019 Conservative voters are confident of a Conservative victory—up from 69% last week—whereas 66% of 2019 Labour voters are confident of a Labour victory.

The Government’s Net Competency Rating stands at +3% in this week’s poll, a substantial 9% improvement since last week, and tied with 8 March 2021 for the highest rating since August 2020. Altogether, 35% find the Government competent (up 6%), 32% find the Government incompetent (down 3%), and 24% find the Government neither competent nor incompetent (down 4%).

Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s net approval rating is positive for the fourteenth week in a row––this time at +17%, an eleven-point increase from last week and his highest rating since 22 March 2021. This week’s poll finds 48% approving of his overall job performance (up 6%), against 31% disapproving (down 5%).

Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak’s approval rating has also improved, with this week’s poll finding it at +32% (up 4%). 48% say they approve of Rishi Sunak’s job performance, while 16% disapprove.

Keir Starmer’s net approval rating stands at -7%, a six-point decrease from last week, and the lowest ever net approval rating for Starmer since he became Leader of the Labour Party. 33% disapprove of Keir Starmer’s job performance, while 26% approve. Meanwhile, a slight plurality (34%) neither approve nor disapprove of Starmer’s job performance.

Between Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer, 50% say they think Boris Johnson would be a better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom at this moment than Keir Starmer, an increase of 5% from last week. Conversely, 26% think Keir Starmer would be the better Prime Minister when compared to Boris Johnson.

More specifically, Boris Johnson continues to lead over Keir Starmer as being the one who best embodies the following descriptions: ‘can build a strong economy’ (50% to 26%), ‘knows how to get things done’ (47% to 25%), ‘stands up for the interests of the United Kingdom’ (52% to 25%), and ‘can tackle the coronavirus pandemic’ (50% to 25%).

Following Keir Starmer’s narrow lead over Boris Johnson in best embodying being someone who ‘cares about people like me’ last week, Johnson now leads in this regard (39% to 30%). Keir Starmer only leads when it comes to best embodying the description of being ‘in good physical and mental health’ (37% to 34%).

Although the Chancellor has a considerably more favourable net approval rating compared to the Prime Minister, more members of the public think Boris Johnson (44%) would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment than think Rishi Sunak (29%).

Rishi Sunak holds a 19% lead over Keir Starmer for the best Prime Minister at this moment, an increase of 12% since last week. Between Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak, 45% think Rishi Sunak would be the better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom against 26% who think Keir Starmer would be.