Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest voting intention poll in Great Britain finds the Labour Party leading by 11%, one point lower than in last week Thursday’s poll. Altogether, the full numbers (with the changes from 7 July in parentheses) are as follows: 

Labour 42% (-1)

Conservative 31% (–)

Liberal Democrat 12% (–)

Green 5% (-2)

Scottish National Party 4% (+1)

Reform UK 5% (+3)

Plaid Cymru 0% (–)

Other 1% (-2)

When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Labour Party leads by 9%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 16% of the sample says they do not know how they would vote, including 18% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 and 6% of those who voted Labour. Altogether, 86% of those who voted Labour in 2019 say they would vote Labour again, while 60% of those who voted Conservative say they would vote Conservative again.

Yesterday’s sample has 56% of respondents saying they would be ‘certain to vote’ if there were to be a General Election tomorrow. Those who voted Conservative in 2019 (70%) are more likely than those who voted Labour (64%) to say they are ‘certain to vote.’

The economy (60%) ranks as the most cited important issue respondents say would determine how they would vote, ahead of healthcare (47%). Respondents also select immigration (28%), taxation (23%), and education (23%).

A plurality (27%) of respondents believe a Labour Party majority would be the most likely outcome if a General Election were held in the next six months. 18% expect a Conservative Party majority, 17% expect a Conservative-led minority Government, and 14% expect a Labour-led minority Government.

The Government’s net competency rating is -37% in this week’s poll, seven points lower than last Sunday. Altogether, 16% find the Government competent (-5), and 53% find the Government incompetent (+2).

Following the announcement of his resignation on Thursday, Prime Minister Boris Johnson receives a net approval rating of -19%, twelve points higher than on the morning of the day he announced his resignation. Yesterday’s poll finds 50% disapproving of his overall job performance (-6), against 31% approving (+6).

Keir Starmer’s net approval rating is also negative, standing at -9%, three points lower than on Thursday last week. 28% approve of Keir Starmer’s job performance (–), while 37% disapprove (+3).

Keir Starmer (39%, –) leads Boris Johnson (32%, -3) by 7% in terms of who Britons think would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment.

Finally, Keir Starmer (41%, +3) stands ahead of Rishi Sunak (34%, –) on who would be the better Prime
Minister at this moment.