Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest voting intention poll in Great Britain finds the Labour Party leading by 4%, a one-point increase to their lead over the Conservatives in last week’s poll. Altogether, the full numbers (with the changes from 3 January in parentheses) are as follows: 

Labour 39% (+1)

Conservative 35% (–)

Liberal Democrat 12% (+2)

Green 5% (–)

Scottish National Party 4% (-1)

Reform UK 4% (–)

Plaid Cymru 0% (–)

Other 1% (-1)

When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Labour Party also leads by four points. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 16% of the sample say they do not know how they would vote, including a notable 17% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 and 9% of those who voted Labour.

Today’s sample has 57% of respondents saying they would be ‘certain to vote’ if there were to be a General Election tomorrow. Those who voted Conservative in 2019 (69%) are more likely to say they are ‘certain to vote’ than those who voted Labour (61%).

Healthcare remains the issue respondents consider most likely to determine how they would vote in the next General Election. When asked to select up to three issues which would most determine how they would vote in a General Election, if there were to be one tomorrow, respondents select healthcare (57%, up 3%), the economy (43%, up 1%), immigration (29%, up 1%), education (26%, down 1%), coronavirus restrictions (25%, up 2%), and the environment (23%, up 1%).

If a General Election were to take place in the next six months, 24% of respondents expect the outcome to be a Conservative Party majority (down 3%). 22% expect a Labour majority (up 1%), 18% expect a Conservative-led minority Government (up 2%), and 11% expect a Labour-led minority Government (down 1%). 44% of 2019 Conservative Party voters think the Conservatives would achieve a majority (down 1%), while 43% of 2019 Labour voters expect that Labour would win a majority (down 2%).

The Government’s net competency rating is -26% in this week’s poll, decreasing three points since last week. Altogether, 22% find the Government competent (down 1%), 48% find the Government incompetent (up 2%), and 24% find the Government neither competent nor incompetent (no change).

Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s net approval rating stands at -19%, a figure which has decreased by one point in the past week. This week’s poll finds 50% disapproving (up 1%) of his overall job performance, against 31% approving (no change).

Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak receives a net approval rating of +17%, representing a three-point decrease compared to last week. 43% say they approve of Rishi Sunak’s job performance (down 1%), while 26% disapprove (up 2%).

Keir Starmer’s net approval rating has increased by four points to -3%—the highest net approval rating we have recorded for Starmer since May 2021. 33% disapprove of Keir Starmer’s job performance (up 1%), while 30% approve (up 5%). Meanwhile, 30% neither approve nor disapprove of Starmer’s job performance (down 5%).

37% think Keir Starmer (up 2%) and 36% think Boris Johnson (down 1%) would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment, marking the third occasion Starmer has led over Johnson in this regard since we began asking this question in June 2020.

Boris Johnson continues to lead over Keir Starmer as being the one who best embodies the descriptions ‘can build a strong economy’ (38% to 34%), ‘can tackle the coronavirus pandemic’ (36% to 31%), and ‘knows how to get things done’ (36% to 31%).

Keir Starmer leads over Boris Johnson when it comes to best embodying the descriptions of ‘being in good physical and mental health’ (44% to 24%), ‘represents change’ (41% to 26%), and ‘is willing to work with other parties when possible’ (42% to 28%).

Meanwhile, pluralities of respondents say they do not know which of the two ‘tells the truth’ (47%), ‘prioritises the environment’ (44%), or ‘is a strong leader’ (36%).

Further, in a contest between the current Prime Minister and the Chancellor of the Exchequer, 38% say Rishi Sunak (up 2%) and 29% say Boris Johnson (down 1%) would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment.

Rishi Sunak holds a three-point lead over Keir Starmer for the better Prime Minister at this moment. Between Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak, 38% think Rishi Sunak would be the better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom (no change), against 35% who think Keir Starmer would be (no change).