Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest voting intention poll in Great Britain finds the Conservative Party leading by 6%––the same as last week’s poll. Altogether, the full numbers (with the changes from last week in parentheses) are as follows:
Conservative 44% (+1)
Labour 38% (+1)
Liberal Democrat 7% (–)
Scottish National Party 4% (–)
Green 3% (-2)
Reform UK 2% (-1)
Plaid Cymru 0% (–)
Other 1% (–)
When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Conservatives lead by 5%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 15% of the sample said they do not know how they would vote, including 11% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019, 7% of those who voted Labour, and 27% of those who voted Liberal Democrat.
This week’s sample had 62% of respondents saying they would be ‘certain to vote’ if there were to be a General Election in the near future, when it is safe for an election to be held. Those who voted Conservative in 2019 were more likely to say they were ‘certain to vote’ (75%) than those who had voted for Labour in 2019 (62%). While a quarter of those who voted Liberal Democrat in 2019 do not know how they will vote now, 75% nevertheless say they are ‘certain to vote.’
Predictions as to who is most likely to win the highest number of seats in the next election have also remained stable: 41% expect the Conservative Party to win the highest number of seats against 29% who think Labour will (both down 1% from last week). Those who say they would now vote Conservative are significantly more confident of a Conservative victory (82%) than those who say they would now vote Labour are confident of a Labour victory (67%).
The Government’s Net Competency Rating stands at -3% in this week’s poll, an increase of 2% from last week. While still negative, this result is better than the -13% result from a poll conducted only four weeks ago. Altogether, 35% find the Government incompetent (down 2%) and 32% find the Government competent (the same as last week). 27% find the Government neither incompetent nor incompetent (up 2%).
For the fourth week in a row, Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s net approval rating is positive––this time at +8%, a notable increase of 5% since last week. This week’s poll finds 44% approving of his overall job performance, against 36% disapproving.
Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak’s approval rating has likewise jumped with this week’s poll finding it at +39%. 54% say they approve of Rishi Sunak’s job performance, while 15% disapprove.
Keir Starmer’s net approval rating has returned to positivity at +4%. 31% approve of Keir Starmer’s job performance since becoming Leader of the Labour Party, while 27% disapprove. A plurality (36%) of members of the public say their neither approve nor disapprove of his job performance.
Between Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer, 48% say they think Boris Johnson would be the better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom at this moment, an increase of 1% from last week. 30% think Keir Starmer would be the better Prime Minister. Boris Johnson’s 18% lead is 4% higher than last week.
More specifically, Boris Johnson leads against Keir Starmer as best embodying the following descriptions: ‘can build a strong economy’ (49% to 28%), ‘knows how to get things done’ (45% to 28%), ‘stands up for the interests of the United Kingdom’ (49% to 31%), and ‘can tackle the coronavirus pandemic’ (47% to 26%).
Keir Starmer, on the other hand, appears to better embody, if narrowly, the descriptions: ‘represents change’ (38% to 37%), is in good physical and mental health (41% to 30%), and ‘cares about people like me’ (36% to 35%).
On the question of who better embodies the description, ‘tells the truth,’ respondents are noticeably unsure (42%).
Even though the Chancellor has a considerably more favourable net approval rating compared to the Prime Minister, more members of the public think Boris Johnson (42%) would be the better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom at this moment than think Rishi Sunak (31%). Boris Johnson’s lead stands at +11%.
Rishi Sunak holds an 11% lead over Keir Starmer for the best Prime Minister at this moment. Between Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak, 42% think Rishi Sunak would be the better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom against 31% who think Keir Starmer would be––a 4% increase in Sunak’s lead compared to last week.