Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest voting intention poll in Great Britain finds the Conservative Party leading by 2%––a drop from last week’s 5% lead and a return to the same lead held a fortnight ago. Altogether, the full numbers (with the changes from last week) are as follows: 

Conservative 40% (-2)

Labour 38% (+1)

Liberal Democrat 8% (–)

Scottish National Party 5% (–)

Green 4% (–)

Reform UK 3% (–)

Plaid Cymru 0% (–)

Other 1% (-1)

When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Conservatives lead by 1%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 17% of the sample said they do not know how they would vote, including 16% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019, 10% of those who voted Labour, and 20% of those who voted Liberal Democrat.

This week’s sample had 60% of respondents saying they would be ‘certain to vote’ if there were to be a General Election in the near future, when it is safe for an election to be held. Those who voted Conservative in 2019 were more somewhat likely to say they were ‘certain to vote’ (70%) than those who had voted for Labour in 2019 (66%)––a smaller difference compared to last week, when the difference was more stark.

Predictions as to who is most likely to win the highest number of seats in the next election have remained relatively stable, with 37% expecting the Conservative Party to win the highest number of seats (up 1% from last week) against 31% who think Labour will (down 2% from last week).

This week’s Government Net Competency stands at -13%. 40% find the current Government incompetent against 27% who find it competent.

Boris Johnson’s net approval rating has returned to negative (-1%) after his first net positive approval rating since September was recorded last week. This week’s poll finds 39% approving and 40% disapproving of his job performance.

Chancellor Rishi Sunak’s net approval rating is almost unchanged at +30%, down just 1% from last week. 49% approve of the Chancellor of the Exchequer’s Job Performance, while 19% disapprove. 

A plurality of members of the public (36%) continue to say they ‘neither approve nor disapprove’ of Labour Leader Keir Starmer’s overall job performance. His net approval rating stands at +7%, down a slight 2% from last week.

Between Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer, 42% say they think Boris Johnson would be the better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom at this moment. 32% think Keir Starmer would be the better PM, while 26% say they don’t know.

Between the Prime Minister and the Chancellor, 39% thought Boris Johnson would be the better PM at this moment, while 31% thought Rishi Sunak––the same result as a week ago.

Dropping 3% from last week, Rishi Sunak still holds a 4% lead over Keir Starmer for best PM at this moment.

Finally, with respect to more specific areas, Boris Johnson still holds strong leads over Keir Starmer when it comes to being the one most likely to build a strong economy (45% to 30%), work well with foreign leaders (42% to 35%), know how to get things done (41% to 30%), stand up for the interests of the United Kingdom (46% to 31%), and tackle the coronavirus pandemic (39% to 27%).

Among members of the public, Keir Starmer, meanwhile, “represents change” (38% to 33%), “cares about people like me” (35% to 31%) and appears to better fit the description “is in good physical and mental health” (42% to 27%). 

A significant number of respondents continue to respond ‘don’t know’ when asked to select between the party leaders on the quality: tells the truth (44%).