Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest voting intention poll in Great Britain finds the Conservative Party leading by 6%. This lead is only marginally different than the Conservatives’ 5% lead on the 24th of August. The full numbers (with changes from 24 August in parenthesis) are as follows:
Conservative 43% (+1)
Labour 37% (–)
Liberal Democrat 8% (-1)
Scottish National Party 4% (–)
Green 4% (-1)
Plaid Cymru 0% (–)
Other 3% (–)
This week, likelihood to vote was virtually unchanged from last week, with 59% and 60% respectively saying they would be certain to vote in the event of a General Election in the near future.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s approval rating stood at net +3%, with 42% approving and 39% disapproving of his overall job performance since he became Prime Minister. Compared to our poll on August 24, 3% more of respondents approve of his performance and 1% more disapprove, resulting in a net +2% increase in his overall approval rating. This difference, once again, falls within the margins of error of our two polls.
Keir Starmer’s approval rating this week stands at net +15% approval, which represents a three percent decrease from our previous voting intention poll. On this occasion, 36% approve of his job performance since becoming Leader of the Labour Party, compared to 21% who disapprove. As has often been the case for the relatively new Labour leader, about a third of respondents said that they neither approve nor disapprove of Starmer’s job performance or that they do not know where they stand.
Apart from the two main party leaders, Chancellor Rishi Sunak’s approval rating stands at a stunning net +40%. 54% approve of his job performance since he become Chancellor of the Exchequer, while 14% disapprove. Sunak’s popularity is lower than the +43% net approval that he enjoyed last week, but similar to his +41% net approval from the week before.
In the circumstance that Boris Johnson steps down before the next election, it has been reported that Michael Gove would challenge Rishi Sunak for the position of Prime Minister. In our poll, Sunak is overwhelmingly the preference for Prime Minister in a straight contest between Gove and Sunak, with 54% to Gove’s 11%. Among 2019 Conservative voters, Sunak’s lead is even higher.
In a contest between Sunak and Johnson, Johnson leads by 5%, similar to the 4% lead in our last poll in August.
And in a contest between Sunak and Starmer, Sunak leads by a healthy 13%, although 27% say they do not know whom they would prefer.
Strikingly, despite the Conservative Party’s consistent leads in voting intention, a plurality of respondents (44%) view the current Government as incompetent. This figure contrasts with 28% who find the current Government competent. Notably, 18% of 2019 Conservative voters view the current Government as incompetent, suggesting that there is ample opportunity for an opposition to set its case as a viable alternative.
For now, however, it appears this Government does not inspire a significant amount of confidence among members of the public, yet voters would prefer it over all possible alternatives presented.