Latest Blue Wall Voting Intention (5 November 2023)

November 8, 2023
R&WS Research Team
Approval Rating | Blue Wall | Conservative Party | GB Politics | Keir Starmer | Labour Party | Rishi Sunak | UK Elections | Voting Intention

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A key question in the next General Election in the United Kingdom will be whether the Conservative Party can retain its seats in the so-called ‘Blue Wall’ of affluent, southern constituencies where the party has traditionally won, but where its support has been slipping in recent years—particularly in response to the party’s positioning on Brexit.1 At Redfield and Wilton Strategies, we have taken up the challenge of regularly polling this cluster of politically salient constituencies.

In the forty-two ‘Blue Wall’ seats that we identify and poll, the Conservatives won all in 2019 with 49.74% of the vote to the Liberal Democrats 27.45%. The Labour Party came third in this collection of seats, taking 20.6% of the vote.

Our latest poll of the Blue Wall finds Labour now leading the Conservatives by 4%, overturning the four-point advantage the Conservatives held in our previous Blue Wall poll last month. This is also the largest lead Labour has recorded in our Blue Wall tracker since the end of July.

Altogether, the results of our poll (with changes from 7 October in parentheses) are as follows:

Labour 34% (+2)
Conservative 30% (-6)
Liberal Democrat 25% (–)
Reform UK 6% (+2)
Green 4% (+1)
Other 1% (–)

When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, Labour also leads by 4%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 12% of the sample says they do not know how they would vote, including 13% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019, 11% of those who voted for the Liberal Democrats, and 4% of those who voted for Labour. 

Altogether, 83% of those who voted Labour in 2019 say they would vote Labour again, while 70% of those who voted Liberal Democrat say they would vote for the party at the next election. 

Only 55% of 2019 Conservative voters now say they would vote Conservative again if a General Election were held tomorrow. 16% say they would vote for Labour, 8% would switch to Reform UK, and 7% would vote for the Liberal Democrats. 

49% of Blue Wall voters say they could see themselves voting tactically for a party other than their first choice in order to ensure a party they dislike does not win in their constituency. 67% of 2019 Liberal Democrat voters say they could see themselves voting tactically in such a way, compared to 66% of 2019 Labour and 39% of 2019 Conservative voters.

When asked which would be a better Prime Minister between Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer, 37% (-3) of Blue Wall voters choose Rishi Sunak, and 36% (–) choose Keir Starmer. 28% (+4) say they don’t know.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s approval rating in the Blue Wall registers at -9% (-13), the second-worst rating the Prime Minister has recorded since we started our Blue Wall tracker last October. Just 32% (-6) of those in the Blue Wall, including 46% (-9) of those who voted Conservative in 2019, say they approve of Sunak’s performance. 41% (+7) disapprove. 

31% (-3) approve and 32% (+4) disapprove of Keir Starmer’s job performance since he became Leader of the Labour Party, giving him a net approval rating of -1%, seven points down from his last rating in the Blue Wall. This is only the second negative net approval rating that Starmer has recorded in our Blue Wall tracker since last October.

Blue Wall voters give Ed Davey, the leader of the Liberal Democrats, a net approval rating of +5% (-4). 25% (-3) approve of Davey’s performance while 20% (+1) disapprove. 

On policy delivery, respondents in the Blue Wall are most likely to say they significantly (14%) or fairly (32%) trust the Conservative Party to deliver on national security and defence. 44% say they significantly or fairly trust the party to deliver on the economy.

By comparison, more than 40% of respondents say they do not at all trust the Conservatives to deliver on immigration (46%), the NHS (45%), ‘Levelling Up’ (43%), or the coronavirus pandemic (41%).

With regard to the Labour Party, respondents are most likely to say they significantly (18%) or fairly (31%) trust Labour to deliver on the NHS. 46% of Blue Wall voters also say they significantly or fairly trust Labour on education.

On the flipside, Labour is most likely to be not at all trusted on immigration (36%) or the economy (36%).

When the parties are pitted against each other on the issues, the Conservatives are more trusted than Labour to respond to the crisis in Ukraine (29% to 21%), to handle immigration (26% to 21%), to manage foreign affairs (29% vs 24%), and to manage the economy (30% to 27%).

Labour holds leads of 10 points or more over the Conservatives when voters are asked who they trust the most to support the NHS (34% to 19%), to tackle poverty (32% to 20%), to manage housing (31% to 19%), and to address regional inequalities (29% vs 19%). 

1 Various criteria have been used by different media, academic, and other sources to decide which constituencies constitute the ‘Blue Wall.’ For the purposes of our tracker polling, we have limited ourselves to studying constituencies which meet five criteria: 1) The constituency is in the South of England 2) The constituency elected a Conservative MP at the 2015, 2017, and 2019 General Elections 3) At least 25% of adults in the constituency have a degree 4) The Remain vote in the 2016 Brexit referendum in the constituency was greater than 42.5% 5) The Conservatives hold the constituency on a majority of less than 10,000 over Labour OR less than 15,000 over the Liberal Democrats.

A full list of the constituencies polled can be found in the data tables.

To find out more information about this research contact our research team. Redfield & Wilton Strategies is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Follow us on Twitter

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