Latest Blue Wall Voting Intention (3 March 2024)

March 5, 2024
R&WS Research Team
Approval Rating | Blue Wall | Conservative Party | GB Politics | Keir Starmer | Labour Party | Rishi Sunak | UK Elections | Voting Intention

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A key question in the next General Election in the United Kingdom will be whether the Conservative Party can retain its seats in the so-called ‘Blue Wall’ of affluent, southern constituencies where the party has traditionally won, but where its support has been slipping in recent years—particularly in response to the party’s positioning on Brexit.1 At Redfield and Wilton Strategies, we have taken up the challenge of regularly polling this cluster of politically salient constituencies.

In the forty-two ‘Blue Wall’ seats that we identify and poll, the Conservatives won all in 2019 with 49.74% of the vote to the Liberal Democrats 27.45%. The Labour Party came third in this collection of seats, taking 20.6% of the vote.

Our latest poll of the Blue Wall finds Labour leading the Conservatives by 9%, two points more than in our previous Blue Wall poll three weeks ago, and tying Labour’s largest lead in these seats since 26 February 2023.

At 28%, the Conservatives vote share in these seats is now the joint-lowest that we have ever recorded, tying the result of our first Blue Wall poll on 7-8 October 2022, during Liz Truss’s premiership. 

The Liberal Democrats (19%) also record their lowest vote share in the Blue Wall since 12 February 2023 (17%).

Altogether, the results of our poll (with changes from 11 February in parentheses) are as follows:

Labour 37% (–)
Conservative 28% (-2)
Liberal Democrat 19% (-2)
Reform UK 10% (+3)
Green 5% (+1)
Other 1% (-1)

When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, Labour leads by 7%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 13% of the sample says they do not know how they would vote, including 13% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019, 7% of those who voted for the Liberal Democrats, and 4% of those who voted for Labour. 

Altogether, 84% of those who voted Labour in 2019 say they would vote Labour again, while 62% of those who voted Liberal Democrat say they would vote for the party at the next election. 

Only 50% of 2019 Conservative voters now say they would vote Conservative again if a General Election were held tomorrow, the lowest percentage of 2019 Conservative voters to say they would vote Conservative again that we have recorded since Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister in October 2022. 16% say they would vote for Labour, while 15% would switch to Reform UK.

44% of Blue Wall voters say they could see themselves voting tactically for a party other than their first choice in order to ensure a party they dislike does not win in their constituency. 59% of 2019 Liberal Democrat voters say they could see themselves voting tactically in such a way, compared to 55% of 2019 Labour and only 35% of 2019 Conservative voters.

When asked which would be a better Prime Minister between Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer, 37% (-2) of Blue Wall voters choose Keir Starmer, and 33% (–) choose Rishi Sunak. 30% (+2) say they don’t know.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s approval rating in the Blue Wall registers at -19% (-10), the lowest approval rating he has ever recorded in these seats. 

27% (-6) of those in the Blue Wall, including 41% (-8) of those who voted Conservative in 2019, say they approve of Sunak’s performance. 46% (+4) disapprove. 

32% (+1) approve and 36% (+7) disapprove of Keir Starmer’s job performance since he became Leader of the Labour Party, giving him a net approval rating of -4%, six points down from his last rating in the Blue Wall, and the lowest net approval rating he has ever recorded in these seats.

Blue Wall voters give Ed Davey, the leader of the Liberal Democrats, a net approval rating of -5% (-2). 19% (-1) approve of Davey’s performance while 24% (+1) disapprove. 

On policy delivery, respondents in the Blue Wall are most likely to say they significantly (12%) or fairly (29%) trust the Conservative Party to deliver on the coronavirus pandemic. 39% say they significantly or fairly trust the party to deliver on the economy, national security and defence, and foreign policy.

By comparison, majorities of respondents say they do not at all trust the Conservatives to deliver on the NHS (52%) or immigration (51%).

With regard to the Labour Party, respondents are most likely to say they significantly (20%) or fairly (28%) trust Labour to deliver on the NHS. 48% of Blue Wall voters also say they significantly or fairly trust Labour on education.

On the flipside, Labour is most likely to be not at all trusted on immigration (38%), the economy (36%), and taxation (36%).

When the parties are pitted against each other on the issues, the Conservatives are more trusted than Labour to respond to the crisis in Ukraine (26% to 23%) and to manage foreign affairs (26% vs 25%).

Labour holds leads of more than 15 points over the Conservatives when voters are asked who they trust the most to support the NHS (37% to 16%), to tackle poverty (34% to 16%), to invest in ‘left behind’ areas (32% to 15%), and to manage housing (32% to 16%).

Labour is also more trusted than the Conservatives to handle immigration (25% to 19%) and to manage the economy (28% to 26%).

1 Various criteria have been used by different media, academic, and other sources to decide which constituencies constitute the ‘Blue Wall.’ For the purposes of our tracker polling, we have limited ourselves to studying constituencies which meet five criteria: 1) The constituency is in the South of England 2) The constituency elected a Conservative MP at the 2015, 2017, and 2019 General Elections 3) At least 25% of adults in the constituency have a degree 4) The Remain vote in the 2016 Brexit referendum in the constituency was greater than 42.5% 5) The Conservatives hold the constituency on a majority of less than 10,000 over Labour OR less than 15,000 over the Liberal Democrats.

A full list of the constituencies polled can be found in the data tables.

To find out more information about this research contact our research team. Redfield & Wilton Strategies is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Follow us on Twitter

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