Latest Blue Wall Voting Intention (28 April 2024)

May 1, 2024
R&WS Research Team
Approval Rating | Blue Wall | Conservative Party | GB Politics | Keir Starmer | Labour Party | Rishi Sunak | UK Elections | Voting Intention

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A key question in the next General Election in the United Kingdom will be whether the Conservative Party can retain its seats in the so-called ‘Blue Wall’ of affluent, southern constituencies where the party has traditionally won, but where its support has been slipping in recent years—particularly in response to the party’s positioning on Brexit.1 At Redfield and Wilton Strategies, we have taken up the challenge of regularly polling this cluster of politically salient constituencies.

In the forty-two ‘Blue Wall’ seats that we identify and poll, the Conservatives won all in 2019 with 49.74% of the vote to the Liberal Democrats 27.45%. The Labour Party came third in this collection of seats, taking 20.6% of the vote.

Our latest poll of the Blue Wall finds Labour leading the Conservatives by 9%, one point more than in our previous Blue Wall poll one month ago, and tying Labour’s largest lead in these seats since 26 February 2023.

At 25%, the Conservatives vote share in these seats is now the lowest that we have ever recorded. The Conservatives current vote share is one point lower than their previous record low of 26%, recorded in our previous Blue Wall poll in late March.

Altogether, the results of our poll (with changes from 31 March in parentheses) are as follows:

Labour 34% (–)
Conservative 25% (-1)
Liberal Democrat 23% (+3)
Reform UK 11% (-3)
Green 5% (-1)
Other 1% (+1)

When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, Labour leads by 8%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 13% of the sample says they do not know how they would vote, including 15% of those who voted Liberal Democrat in December 2019, 8% of those who voted Conservative, and 1% of those who voted for Labour. 

Altogether, 82% of those who voted Labour in 2019 say they would vote Labour again, while 64% of those who voted Liberal Democrat say they would vote for the party at the next election. 

Only 47% of 2019 Conservative voters now say they would vote Conservative again if a General Election were held tomorrow, the joint-lowest percentage of 2019 Conservative voters to say they would vote Conservative again that we have recorded since we began our Blue Wall tracker in October 2022. 19% say they would vote for Reform UK, while 18% would switch to Labour.

43% of Blue Wall voters say they could see themselves voting tactically for a party other than their first choice in order to ensure a party they dislike does not win in their constituency. 69% of 2019 Liberal Democrat voters say they could see themselves voting tactically in such a way, compared to 64% of 2019 Labour and only 35% of 2019 Conservative voters.

When asked which would be a better Prime Minister between Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer, 39% (–) of Blue Wall voters choose Keir Starmer, and 30% (-1) choose Rishi Sunak, giving Starmer his largest ever lead over Sunak in these seats. 31% (+1) say they don’t know.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s approval rating in the Blue Wall registers at -20% (-3), the lowest approval rating he has ever recorded in these seats

27% (–) of those in the Blue Wall, including 44% (+4) of those who voted Conservative in 2019, say they approve of Sunak’s performance. 47% (+3), including 35% (–) of 2019 Conservative voters, disapprove. 

40% (+8) approve and 32% (+2) disapprove of Keir Starmer’s job performance since he became Leader of the Labour Party, giving him a net approval rating of +8%, six points up from his last rating in the Blue Wall, and his highest rating in these seats since 26-27 August.

Blue Wall voters give Ed Davey, the leader of the Liberal Democrats, a net approval rating of +5% (+10). 24% (+5) approve of Davey’s performance while 19% (-5) disapprove. 

On policy delivery, respondents in the Blue Wall are most likely to say they significantly (17%) or fairly (25%) trust the Conservative Party to deliver on the coronavirus pandemic. 42% also say they significantly or fairly trust the party to deliver on national security and defence.

Respondents are most likely to say they do not at all trust the Conservatives to deliver on taxation (50%), the NHS (49%), and immigration (48%).

With regard to the Labour Party, respondents are most likely to say they significantly (19%) or fairly (25%) trust Labour to deliver on the NHS. 43% of Blue Wall voters also say they significantly or fairly trust Labour on benefits.

On the flipside, Labour is most likely to be not at all trusted on taxation (41%), the economy (41%), and immigration (40%).

When the parties are pitted against each other on the issues, the Conservatives are more trusted than Labour to respond to the crisis in Ukraine (27% to 23%), while the two parties are equally trusted to respond to the coronavirus crisis (24% each).

Labour is more trusted than the Conservatives on every other issue prompted. Labour holds leads of more than 15 points over the Conservatives when voters are asked who they trust the most to tackle poverty (35% to 13%), to support the NHS (34% to 15%), to manage housing (33% to 14%), to invest in ‘left behind’ areas (31% to 12%), to support the education system (33% to 16%), and to address regional inequalities (29% to 12%).

Labour is also more trusted than the Conservatives to handle immigration (29% to 16%) and to manage the economy (29% to 24%).

1 Various criteria have been used by different media, academic, and other sources to decide which constituencies constitute the ‘Blue Wall.’ For the purposes of our tracker polling, we have limited ourselves to studying constituencies which meet five criteria: 1) The constituency is in the South of England 2) The constituency elected a Conservative MP at the 2015, 2017, and 2019 General Elections 3) At least 25% of adults in the constituency have a degree 4) The Remain vote in the 2016 Brexit referendum in the constituency was greater than 42.5% 5) The Conservatives hold the constituency on a majority of less than 10,000 over Labour OR less than 15,000 over the Liberal Democrats.

A full list of the constituencies polled can be found in the data tables.

To find out more information about this research contact our research team. Redfield & Wilton Strategies is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Follow us on Twitter

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