A key question in the next General Election in the United Kingdom will be whether the Conservative Party can retain its seats in the so-called ‘Blue Wall’ of affluent, southern constituencies where the party has traditionally won, but where its support has been slipping in recent years—particularly in response to the party’s positioning on Brexit.1 At Redfield and Wilton Strategies, we have taken up the challenge of regularly polling this cluster of politically salient constituencies.
In the forty-two ‘Blue Wall’ seats that we identify and poll (which includes Uxbridge & South Ruislip), the Conservatives won all in 2019 with 49.74% of the vote to the Liberal Democrats 27.45%. The Labour Party came third in this collection of seats, taking 20.6% of the vote.
Our latest poll of the Blue Wall finds Labour leading the Conservatives by 4%, three points down from our previous Blue Wall poll two weeks ago.
Altogether, the results of our poll (with changes from our previous poll on 2 July in parentheses) are as follows:
Labour 36% (–)
Conservative 32% (+3)
Liberal Democrat 23% (-2)
Reform UK 5% (–)
Green 5% (+1)
Other 0% (-1)
When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Labour Party leads by 4%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 11% of the sample says they do not know how they would vote, including 14% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019, 3% of those who voted for Labour, and 6% of those who voted for the Liberal Democrats.
Altogether, 85% of those who voted Labour in 2019 say they would vote Labour again, while 72% of those who voted Liberal Democrat say they would vote for the party at the next election.
59% of 2019 Conservative voters now say they would vote Conservative again if a General Election were held tomorrow. 15% say they would vote for Labour, 7% would switch to Reform UK, and 3% would support the Liberal Democrats.
54% (+8) of Blue Wall voters now say they could see themselves voting tactically for a party other than their first choice in order to ensure a party they dislike does not win in their constituency, the highest percentage to say they could see themselves doing so that we’ve recorded since we began tracking this question. 62% (+7) of 2019 Labour voters say they could see themselves voting tactically in such a way, compared to 78% (+10) of 2019 Liberal Democrat and 45% (+6) of 2019 Conservative voters.
When asked which would be a better Prime Minister between Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer, 40% (+4) of Blue Wall voters choose Keir Starmer, and 40% (+6) choose Rishi Sunak. 20% (-10) say they don’t know.
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s approval rating in the Blue Wall registers at -6% (+2). 34% (+4) of those in the Blue Wall, including just 40% (-2) of those who voted Conservative in 2019, say they approve of Sunak’s performance. 40% (+2) disapprove.
37% (+6) approve and 27% (+1) disapprove of Keir Starmer’s job performance since he became Leader of the Labour Party, giving him a net approval rating of +10%, five points up from his last rating in the Blue Wall two weeks ago, and his highest rating in these seats since 21-22 November.
Blue Wall voters give Ed Davey, the leader of the Liberal Democrats, a net approval rating of +9% (+5). While 28% (+6) approve of Davey’s performance, and 19% (+1) disapprove, a plurality of 37% (-5) neither approve nor disapprove of his performance as party leader.
On policy delivery, respondents in the Blue Wall are most likely to say they significantly (20%) or fairly (31%) trust the Conservative Party to deliver on the coronavirus pandemic. 49% also significantly or fairly trust the party to deliver on the economy, national security & defence, and foreign policy.
By comparison, 38% of respondents say they do not at all trust the Conservatives to deliver on either the NHS.
With regard to the Labour Party, respondents are most likely to say they significantly (21%) or fairly (31%) trust Labour to deliver on the NHS. 51% of Blue Wall voters also say they significantly or fairly trust Labour on education, housing, and benefits.
On the flipside, Labour is most likely to be not at all trusted on the economy (32%) and immigration (30%).
When the parties are pitted against each other on the issues, the Conservatives are more trusted than Labour to respond to the crisis in Ukraine (29% to 25%), and to manage foreign affairs (29% to 27%). The Conservatives and Labour are trusted by equal numbers of Blue Wall voters to respond to the coronavirus crisis (25% each) and to handle immigration (25% each).
Labour is more frequently trusted than the Conservatives on all other issues, holding leads of more than 15 points over the Conservatives when voters are asked who they trust the most to tackle poverty (35% to 18%) and to support the NHS (35% to 19%).
Labour is also more trusted by Blue Wall voters to manage the economy (29% to 26%).
1 Various criteria have been used by different media, academic, and other sources to decide which constituencies constitute the ‘Blue Wall.’ For the purposes of our tracker polling, we have limited ourselves to studying constituencies which meet five criteria: 1) The constituency is in the South of England 2) The constituency elected a Conservative MP at the 2015, 2017, and 2019 General Elections 3) At least 25% of adults in the constituency have a degree 4) The Remain vote in the 2016 Brexit referendum in the constituency was greater than 42.5% 5) The Conservatives hold the constituency on a majority of less than 10,000 over Labour OR less than 15,000 over the Liberal Democrats.
A full list of the constituencies polled can be found in the data tables.