A key question in the next General Election in the United Kingdom will be whether the Conservative Party can retain its seats in the so-called ‘Blue Wall’ of affluent, southern constituencies where the party has traditionally won, but where its support has been slipping in recent years—particularly in response to the party’s positioning on Brexit.1 At Redfield and Wilton Strategies, we have taken up the challenge of regularly polling this cluster of politically salient constituencies.
In the forty-two ‘Blue Wall’ seats that we identify and poll (which includes Uxbridge & South Ruislip), the Conservatives won all in 2019 with 49.74% of the vote to the Liberal Democrats 27.45%. The Labour Party came third in this collection of seats, taking 20.6% of the vote.
Our latest poll of the Blue Wall finds the Labour Party leading the Conservatives by 2%, extending by one point the 1% lead they held over the Conservatives held in our previous Blue Wall poll two weeks ago.
Altogether, the results of our poll (with changes from our previous poll on 26-27 August in parentheses) are as follows:
Labour 33% (–)
Conservative 31% (-1)
Liberal Democrat 26% (+1)
Reform UK 6% (+1)
Green 4% (–)
Other 1% (–)
When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, Labour maintains a 2% lead. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 13% of the sample says they do not know how they would vote, including 16% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019, 5% of those who voted for the Liberal Democrats, and 2% of those who voted for Labour.
Altogether, 85% of those who voted Labour in 2019 say they would vote Labour again, while 73% of those who voted Liberal Democrat say they would vote for the party at the next election.
56% of 2019 Conservative voters now say they would vote Conservative again if a General Election were held tomorrow. 12% say they would vote for Labour, 10% would switch to Reform UK, and 5% would vote for the Liberal Democrats.
48% of Blue Wall voters say they could see themselves voting tactically for a party other than their first choice in order to ensure a party they dislike does not win in their constituency. 68% of 2019 Liberal Democrat voters say they could see themselves voting tactically in such a way, compared to 59% of 2019 Labour and 39% of 2019 Conservative voters.
When asked which would be a better Prime Minister between Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer, 37% (+2) of Blue Wall voters choose Rishi Sunak, and 34% (-2) choose Keir Starmer. 29% (–) say they don’t know.
On policy delivery, respondents in the Blue Wall are most likely to say they significantly (17%) or fairly (30%) trust the Conservative Party to deliver on the coronavirus pandemic. 47% also significantly or fairly trust the party to deliver on national security and defence.
By comparison, more than 40% of respondents say they do not at all trust the Conservatives to deliver on the NHS (47%), immigration (44%), or ‘Levelling Up’ (41%).
With regard to the Labour Party, respondents are most likely to say they significantly (15%) or fairly (33%) trust Labour to deliver on benefits. 47% of Blue Wall voters also say they significantly or fairly trust Labour on the NHS and housing.
On the flipside, Labour is most likely to be not at all trusted on immigration (37%) and the economy (36%).
When the parties are pitted against each other on the issues, the Conservatives are more trusted than Labour to respond to the crisis in Ukraine (31% to 20%), to respond to the coronavirus crisis (27% to 22%), to manage the economy (28% to 25%), and to handle immigration (25% to 22%).
The Conservatives and Labour are trusted by equal numbers of Blue Wall voters to manage foreign affairs (29% each).
Labour is more frequently trusted than the Conservatives on all other issues listed, holding leads of more than 10 points over the Conservatives when voters are asked who they trust the most to support the NHS (34% to 17%), to tackle poverty (33% to 18%), to manage housing (31% to 18%), to address regional inequalities (29% to 16%), and to invest in ‘left behind’ areas (29% to 17%).
1 Various criteria have been used by different media, academic, and other sources to decide which constituencies constitute the ‘Blue Wall.’ For the purposes of our tracker polling, we have limited ourselves to studying constituencies which meet five criteria: 1) The constituency is in the South of England 2) The constituency elected a Conservative MP at the 2015, 2017, and 2019 General Elections 3) At least 25% of adults in the constituency have a degree 4) The Remain vote in the 2016 Brexit referendum in the constituency was greater than 42.5% 5) The Conservatives hold the constituency on a majority of less than 10,000 over Labour OR less than 15,000 over the Liberal Democrats.
A full list of the constituencies polled can be found in the data tables.
