Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest Brexit tracker poll in partnership with UK in a Changing Europe finds the proportion of Britons who say they would vote for the UK to stay out of the EU has increased slightly from our previous poll on 9 November 2021. If a referendum on re-joining the European Union were to take place tomorrow, 55% say they would vote for the UK to stay out of the EU (up 2%) and 45% say they would vote for the UK to join the EU (down 2%).

Among respondents who voted ‘Leave’ in the 2016 EU Referendum, 87% say they would vote to remain outside of the EU (down 2%) and 13% say they would vote to re-join (up 2%). Conversely, 74% of ‘Remain’ voters indicate they would vote to join the EU (down 5%), while a notable 26% would instead vote for the UK to stay out (up 5%).

When those who say they don’t know how they would vote in such a referendum are included, 50% of respondents would vote for the UK to stay out of the EU (no change), 41% would vote for the UK to join the EU (down 3%), and 9% are unsure (up 3%).

Most of the British public continues to feel the prospect of re-entering the European Union is not likely to happen in the near future: 53% think it is unlikely that the UK will apply to re-join the EU in the next ten years (down 3%), including 65% of ‘Leave’ voters (down 6%) and 49% of ‘Remain’ voters (up 2%). 25% of Britons alternatively deem it likely that the UK will apply to re-join (up 4%), a position that is more common among those who voted ‘Remain’ (27%, up 2%) rather than ‘Leave’ (19%, up 5%) in 2016.

Even if the UK were to apply to become a member of the European Union again, Britons are not convinced that the EU would welcome it: 42% find it unlikely (up 5%) and 29% find it likely (down 2%) that the Member States of the EU would accept the UK’s application to re-join. Respondents’ views do not vary significantly based on their 2016 EU Referendum vote, with 42% of ‘Leave’ voters (up 4%) and 44% of ‘Remain’ voters (up 7%) considering the prospect unlikely.