Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest Brexit tracker poll in partnership with UK in a Changing Europe finds the proportion of Britons who say they would vote for the UK to stay out of the EU has decreased from our previous poll on 20 February 2021. If a referendum on re-joining the European Union were to take place tomorrow, 51% say they would vote for the UK to stay out of the EU (down 4%) and 49% say they would vote for the UK to join the EU (up 4%).

Among respondents who voted ‘Leave’ in the 2016 EU Referendum, 85% say they would vote to remain outside of the EU (down 2%) and 15% say they would vote to re-join (up 2%). Conversely, 76% of ‘Remain’ voters indicate they would vote to join the EU (up 2%), while a notable 24% would instead vote for the UK to stay out (down 2%).

When those who say they don’t know how they would vote in such a referendum are included, 47% of respondents would vote for the UK to stay out of the EU (down 3%), 45% would vote for the UK to join the EU (up 4%), and 8% are unsure (down 1%).

Most of the British public continues to feel the prospect of re-entering the European Union is not likely to happen in the near future: 54% think it is unlikely that the UK will apply to re-join the EU in the next ten years (up 1%), including 68% of ‘Leave’ voters (up 3%) and 50% of ‘Remain’ voters (up 1%). 23% of Britons alternatively deem it likely that the UK will apply to re-join (down 2%), a position that is more common among those who voted ‘Remain’ (26%, down 1%) rather than ‘Leave’ (15%, down 4%) in 2016.

Even if the UK were to apply to become a member of the European Union again, Britons are not convinced that the EU would welcome it: 40% find it unlikely (down 2%) and 29% find it likely (no change) that the Member States of the EU would accept the UK’s application to re-join.