Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest Brexit tracker poll in partnership with UK in a Changing Europe finds more Britons saying they would vote to join the EU than saying they would vote to stay out, a reversal from our previous poll on 19 April 2022. Altogether, if a referendum on re-joining the European Union were to take place tomorrow, 53% say they would vote for the UK to join the EU and 47% say they would vote for the UK to stay out of the EU.

When those who say they don’t know how they would vote in such a referendum are included, 48% of respondents would vote for the UK to join the EU, 43% would vote for the UK to join the EU, and 9% are unsure.

80% of those who voted ‘Leave’ in 2016 say they would vote to stay out, while 79% of those who voted ‘Remain’ say they would vote to join the EU. 76% of those aged 18-24, all of whom were ineligible to vote in the 2016 EU referendum due to their age, say they would vote to join the EU.

Nevertheless, most of the British public continues to feel the prospect of re-entering the European Union is not likely to happen in the near future: 50% think it is unlikely that the UK will apply to re-join the EU in the next ten years, including 64% of ‘Leave’ voters and 45% of ‘Remain’ voters. 25% of Britons alternatively deem it likely that the UK will apply to re-join, a position that is more common among those who voted ‘Remain’ (28%) rather than ‘Leave’ (17%) in 2016.

Even if the UK were to apply to become a member of the European Union again, Britons are not convinced that the EU would welcome it: 37% find it unlikely and 31% find it likely that the Member States of the EU would accept the UK’s application to re-join.