Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest Brexit tracker poll in partnership with UK in a Changing Europe finds a majority of Britons still say they would vote to join the EU, although the proportion of voters who say this has decreased one point from our previous poll in October.
Altogether, if a referendum on re-joining the European Union were to take place tomorrow, 56% say they would vote for the UK to join the EU, while 44% say they would vote for the UK to stay out of the EU.
When those who say they don’t know how they would vote in such a referendum are included, 52% of respondents would vote for the UK to join the EU, 41% would vote for the UK to stay out of the EU, and 7% are unsure.
83% of those who voted ‘Remain’ say they would vote to join the EU, while 76% of those who voted ‘Leave’ in 2016 say they would vote to stay out. 18% of those who voted ‘Leave’ in 2016 would now vote to join the EU, while 12% of those who voted ‘Remain’ would now vote to stay out. 73% of those aged 18-24, all of whom were ineligible to vote in the 2016 EU referendum due to their age, say they would vote to join the EU.
Nevertheless, most of the British public continues to feel the prospect of re-entering the European Union is not likely to happen in the near future: 43% think it is unlikely that the UK will apply to re-join the EU in the next ten years, including 56% of ‘Leave’ voters and 38% of ‘Remain’ voters. 30% of Britons alternatively deem it likely that the UK will apply to re-join, a position that is more common among those who voted ‘Remain’ (39%) rather than ‘Leave’ (24%) in 2016.
If the UK were to apply to become a member of the European Union again, a plurality of 39% of Britons think it is likely—against 31% who think it is unlikely—that the Member States of the EU would accept the UK’s application to re-join. Respondents’ views do not vary significantly based on their 2016 EU Referendum vote, with 43% of ‘Remain’ voters and 40% of ‘Leave’ voters considering the prospect likely.