Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest Brexit tracker poll in partnership with UK in a Changing Europe finds even more Britons saying they would vote to join the EU than saying they would vote to stay out than in our previous poll in August.
Altogether, if a referendum on re-joining the European Union were to take place tomorrow, 57% say they would vote for the UK to join the EU, while 43% say they would vote for the UK to stay out of the EU.
When those who say they don’t know how they would vote in such a referendum are included, 52% of voters say they would vote for the UK to join the EU, 39% say they would vote for the UK to stay out of the EU, and 8% say they are undecided.
80% of those who voted ‘Remain’ say they would vote to join the EU, while 74% of those who voted ‘Leave’ in 2016 say they would vote to stay out. 20% of those who voted ‘Leave’ in 2016 would now vote to join the EU, while 14% of those who voted ‘Remain’ would now vote to stay out. 78% of those aged 18-24, all of whom were ineligible to vote in the 2016 EU referendum due to their age, say they would vote to join the EU.
Nevertheless, most of the British public continues to feel the prospect of re-entering the European Union is not likely to happen in the near future: 49% think it is unlikely that the UK will apply to re-join the EU in the next ten years, including 59% of ‘Leave’ voters and 44% of ‘Remain’ voters. 27% of Britons alternatively deem it likely that the UK will apply to re-join, a position that is more common among those who voted ‘Remain’ (32%) rather than ‘Leave’ (22%) in 2016.
Even if the UK were to apply to become a member of the European Union again, Britons are split on how warmly the EU would welcome it: 35% find it unlikely and 35% find it likely that the Member States of the EU would accept the UK’s application to re-join.
In this latest poll, we added a one-off question asking British voters whether the economic problems that emerged as a result of Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng’s “mini budget” had affected their views of Brexit. Altogether, a strong majority (61%) said no, but a still sizeable 21% said yes, they now have a more negative view of Brexit.