Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest Brexit tracker poll in partnership with UK in a Changing Europe finds 61% of Britons say they would now vote to join the EU, unchanged from our previous poll in February and the joint-largest number ever to say they would vote to join the EU in our Brexit tracker poll.
Altogether, if a referendum on re-joining the European Union were to take place tomorrow, 61% say they would vote for the UK to join the EU, while 39% say they would vote for the UK to stay out of the EU.
When those who say they don’t know how they would vote in such a referendum are included, 56% of respondents would vote for the UK to join the EU, 37% would vote for the UK to stay out of the EU, and 7% are unsure.
87% of those who voted ‘Remain’ say they would vote to join the EU, while 71% of those who voted ‘Leave’ in 2016 say they would vote to stay out. 23% of those who voted ‘Leave’ in 2016 would now vote to join the EU, while 8% of those who voted ‘Remain’ would now vote to stay out. 76% of those aged 18-24, all of whom were ineligible to vote in the 2016 EU referendum due to their age, say they would vote to join the EU.
In addition, a majority of 55% say they would support having a referendum on re-joining the EU in the next five years, against 24% who would oppose another referendum within that time frame. 80% of those who voted ‘Remain’ in 2016 would support holding such a referendum, while only 30% of those who voted leave would support holding another referendum.
By contrast, 41% of Britons say they would support—against 33% who would oppose—the UK not holding a referendum on re-joining the EU in the next five years, with a clear divide between those who voted ‘Leave’ in 2016 (62% of whom would support not having a referendum) and those who voted ‘Remain’ (46% of whom would oppose not having another referendum).
However, British voters remain divided on whether or not the question of the UK’s membership of the European Union is settled or not. A narrow plurality of 43%—including 64% of 2016 ‘Remain’ voters—think the issue is not settled and should be reopened, against 42% of all voters—and 73% of 2016 ‘Leave’ voters—who think the issue of the UK’s membership of the EU is settled and should not be reopened.
Regardless of the public’s overall apparent willingness to support another referendum and to vote to re-join, most of the British public continues to feel the prospect of re-entering the European Union is unlikely in the near future: 43% think it is unlikely that the UK will apply to re-join the EU in the next ten years, including 49% of ‘Leave’ voters and 42% of ‘Remain’ voters. 30% of Britons alternatively deem it likely that the UK will apply to re-join, a position that is more common among those who voted ‘Remain’ (36%) rather than ‘Leave’ (24%) in 2016.
If the UK were to apply to become a member of the European Union again, a plurality of 39% of Britons think it is likely—against 28% who think it is unlikely—that the Member States of the EU would accept the UK’s application to re-join. Respondents’ views do not vary significantly based on their 2016 EU Referendum vote, with 41% of ‘Leave’ voters and 43% of ‘Remain’ voters considering the prospect likely.
