Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest Brexit tracker poll in partnership with UK in a Changing Europe finds 61% of Britons say they would now vote to join the EU, unchanged from our previous polls in April and in February and the joint-largest number ever to say they would vote to join the EU in our Brexit tracker poll.
Altogether, if a referendum on re-joining the European Union were to take place tomorrow, 61% (–) say they would vote for the UK to join the EU, while 39% (–) say they would vote for the UK to stay out of the EU.
When those who say they don’t know how they would vote in such a referendum are included, 55% (-1) of respondents would vote for the UK to join the EU, 36% (-1) would vote for the UK to stay out of the EU, and 9% (+2) are unsure.
86% of those who voted ‘Remain’ say they would vote to join the EU, while 73% of those who voted ‘Leave’ in 2016 say they would vote to stay out. 20% of those who voted ‘Leave’ in 2016 would now vote to join the EU, while 10% of those who voted ‘Remain’ would now vote to stay out. 72% of those aged 18-24, all of whom were ineligible to vote in the 2016 EU referendum due to their age, say they would vote to join the EU.
In addition, a majority of 54% now say they would support having a referendum on re-joining the EU in the next five years, against 24% who would oppose another referendum within that time frame. 81% of those who voted ‘Remain’ in 2016 would support holding such a referendum, while only 30% of those who voted leave would support holding another referendum.
By contrast, 40% of Britons say they would support—against 31% who would oppose—the UK not holding a referendum on re-joining the EU in the next five years, with a clear divide between those who voted ‘Leave’ in 2016 (59% of whom would support not having a referendum) and those who voted ‘Remain’ (44% of whom would oppose not having another referendum).
However, British voters remain divided on whether or not the question of the UK’s membership of the European Union is settled or not. A narrow plurality of 43%, including 66% of 2016 ‘Remain’ voters, think the issue is not settled and should be re-opened. Meanwhile, 42%, including 72% of 2016 ‘Leave’ voters, think the issue of the UK’s membership of the EU is settled and should not be re-opened.
Regardless of the public’s overall apparent willingness to support another referendum and to vote to re-join, a plurality of the British public continues to feel the prospect of re-entering the European Union is unlikely in the near future, although that number has fallen in the last two months. 35% (-8) think it is unlikely that the UK will apply to re-join the EU in the next ten years, including 42% of ‘Leave’ voters and 34% of ‘Remain’ voters. 31% (+1) of Britons alternatively deem it likely that the UK will apply to re-join, a position that is more common among those who voted ‘Remain’ (37%) rather than ‘Leave’ (27%) in 2016.
If the UK were to apply to become a member of the European Union again, a plurality of 42% of Britons think it is likely—against 25% who think it is unlikely—that the Member States of the EU would accept the UK’s application to re-join. Respondents’ views do not vary significantly based on their 2016 EU Referendum vote, with 45% of ‘Leave’ voters and 44% of ‘Remain’ voters considering the prospect likely.
