Joining or Staying Out of the EU Referendum Voting Intention (10-11 December 2023)

December 19, 2023
R&WS Research Team
Brexit | The European Union | UK Politics | Voting Intention

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Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest Brexit tracker poll in partnership with UK in a Changing Europe finds 56% of Britons say they would now vote to join the EU, three points lower than in our previous poll in October.

Altogether, if a referendum on re-joining the European Union were to take place tomorrow, 56% (-3) say they would vote for the UK to join the EU, while 44% (+3) say they would vote for the UK to stay out of the EU

When those who say they don’t know how they would vote in such a referendum are included, 52% (-3) of respondents would vote for the UK to join the EU, 40% (+2) would vote for the UK to stay out of the EU, and 8% (–) are unsure.

81% of those who voted ‘Remain’ say they would vote to join the EU, and 14% say they would vote to stay out. By comparison, 74% of those who voted ‘Leave’ in 2016 say they would vote to stay out, while 19% say they would now vote to join the EU.

65% of those aged 18-24, all of whom were ineligible to vote in the 2016 EU referendum due to their age, say they would vote to join the EU. Majorities of those aged 25-34 (67%) and 35-44 (60%) would also vote to join the EU, while majorities of those aged 55-64 (52%) and 65+ (53%) would vote to stay out of the EU.

In addition, a plurality of 30% of Britons now say the United Kingdom should definitely hold a referendum on the question of Britain’s membership of the EU in the next five years. A further 23% think there should ‘probably’ be a referendum on EU membership within that time frame. 71% of those who voted ‘Remain’ in 2016 think the UK should ‘definitely’ (44%) or ‘probably’ (27%) have a referendum on re-joining the EU in the next five years, as do 32% of 2016 ‘Leave’ voters.

36% of Britons think a referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU should either ‘definitely’ (23%) or ‘probably’ (13%) not be held within the next five years. 60% of 2016 ‘Leave’ voters think a referendum on becoming a member of the EU should either ‘definitely’ (46%) or ‘probably’ (14%) not be held within the next five years, while 20% of 2016 ‘Remain’ voters think such a vote ‘definitely’ (9%) or ‘probably’ (11%) shouldn’t be held.

At the same time, British voters remain divided on whether the question of the UK’s membership of the European Union is settled or not. A narrow plurality of 44% (+1), including 73% of 2016 ‘Leave’ voters, think the issue is settled and should not be reopened. Meanwhile, 42% (–), including 64% of 2016 ‘Remain’ voters, think the issue of the UK’s membership of the EU is not settled and should be reopened.

If the UK were to apply to become a member of the European Union again, a plurality of 45% (+6) of Britons think it is likely—against 23% (-3) who think it is unlikely—that the Member States of the EU would accept the UK’s application to re-join. 47% of ‘Leave’ voters and 46% of ‘Remain’ voters consider the prospect likely. This is the highest percentage of voters to say they think it is ‘likely’ that the Member States of the EU would accept the UK’s application to re-join that we have recorded.

To find out more information about this research contact our research team. Redfield & Wilton Strategies is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Follow us on Twitter

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