The latest research by Redfield & Wilton Strategies finds that 48% of Americans disapprove and 38% approve of President Joe Biden’s overall job performance as President. His net approval rating, at -10%, is five points lower than in our polling on 8-9 January, when 44% disapproved and 39% approved of Biden’s performance.
Vice President Kamala Harris’ net approval rating has marginally improved compared to last month, increasing one point to -7% this week. In our latest poll, 43% disapprove (no change) and 36% approve (up 1%) of Kamala Harris’ performance as Vice President.
With a net approval rating of +4% on the pandemic (up 3%) and +3% on the environment (no change), these policy areas remain the only ones to see the Joe Biden Administration elicit a positive net rating.
In all other policy areas, Americans give the current Administration negative net approval ratings, ranging from -1% on healthcare (up 3%) to -16% on immigration (down 2%). Evaluations of the Biden Administration’s performance on foreign relations have taken a particularly negative turn in the past month, decreasing six points to -14% with respect to both relations with Russia and relations with China.
Looking ahead to the 2022 Midterm Election, the economy remains the top issue that Americans say will determine how they will vote in the election. When asked to select up to three issues that are most likely to determine how they vote this November, 57% select the economy, 34% select healthcare, and 33% select the coronavirus pandemic as determinative election issues.
The economy is the most-selected option for both 2020 Joe Biden (56%) and Donald Trump (64%) voters. Other important election issues for Biden voters include healthcare (43%) and the pandemic (42%), while Trump voters are more likely to select immigration (37%) and Government spending (29%).
With regard to the 2024 Presidential Election, our latest hypothetical voting intention finds Joe Biden and Donald Trump neck and neck. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 41% of respondents say they would vote for Biden (down 2%) and 41% say they would vote for Trump (no change) if they were the candidates in 2024. A further 11% say they don’t know how they would vote (no change).
Large majorities of 2020 Donald Trump voters (87%, down 2%) and Joe Biden voters (82%, down 3%) maintain that they would again vote for those respective candidates.
Given the distribution of voters in the United States, an overall tie in the popular vote would most likely mean a Donald Trump victory in the Electoral College.
An alternative 2024 Kamala Harris campaign produces an even more favourable result for the former President. If Donald Trump and Kamala Harris were the 2024 nominees, 43% of Americans say they would vote for Trump (up 2%) and 40% say they would vote for Harris (down 1%). In this scenario, 10% say they don’t know how they would vote (down 1%).