The latest research by Redfield & Wilton Strategies finds that 45% of Americans disapprove and 37% approve of President Joe Biden’s overall job performance as President. His net approval rating, at -8%, is one point higher than in our polling on 15 November, when 46% disapproved and 37% approved of Biden’s performance.
Vice President Kamala Harris’ net approval rating has also slightly improved compared to three weeks ago, increasing three points to -7% this week. In our latest poll, 42% disapprove (down 2%) and 35% approve (up 1%) of Kamala Harris’ performance as Vice President, with a further 18% neither approving nor disapproving (no change).
On matters of policy, the coronavirus pandemic remains the sole area in which the Joe Biden Administration elicits a positive net approval rating—though at +1%, it is now only marginally positive. 41% of Americans approve (down 4%) and 40% disapprove (up 3%) of the Administration’s performance on the pandemic.
In all other policy areas, Americans give the current Administration negative net approval ratings, ranging from -3% (down 1%) on the environment to -25% on immigration (down 1%). Compared to our polling three weeks ago, the Biden Administration now receives slightly more favourable (but still solidly negative) ratings of -9% on national security and defense (up 6%), -12% on the economy (up 4%), and -16% on policing/crime (up 4%).
Looking ahead to the 2024 Presidential Election, the economy is the top issue that Americans say will determine how they will vote in the election. When asked to select up to three issues that are most likely to determine how they vote in 2024, 59% select the economy, 39% select the coronavirus pandemic, 36% select healthcare, and 27% select immigration as determinative election issues.
The economy is the most-selected option for both 2020 Joe Biden (57%) and Donald Trump (65%) voters. Other important elections issues for Biden voters include the pandemic (49%) and healthcare (46%), while Trump voters are more likely to select immigration (43%) and Government spending (34%).
Our latest hypothetical voting intention finds Donald Trump ahead of Joe Biden, with 42% saying they would vote for Trump (down 2%) and 38% saying they would vote for Biden (down 1%), after weighting by likelihood to vote. Together with our polling from three weeks ago, this poll marks the second lead for Donald Trump over Joe Biden that we have seen in our national polling, including polls conducted in advance of the 2020 Election. A further 16% say they don’t know how they would vote (up 9%).
Large majorities of 2020 Donald Trump voters (86%, down 3%) and Joe Biden voters (79%, up 3%) maintain that they would again vote for those respective candidates.
An alternative 2024 Kamala Harris campaign produces the same lead for Donald Trump: if Trump and Harris were the 2024 nominees, 42% of Americans say they would vote for Donald Trump (down 3%) and 38% say they would vote for Kamala Harris (up 2%). Under this scenario, 13% say they don’t know how they would vote (up 6%).