The latest research by Redfield & Wilton Strategies finds that 44% of Americans disapprove and 40% approve of President Joe Biden’s overall job performance as President. His net approval rating, at -4%, is eight points lower than our polling on 17 October, when 43% approved and 39% disapproved of Biden’s performance. The President’s approval rating has been in sharp decline in recent months, now 14 points below the net +10% rating he received in a 4-5 September poll.
Vice President Kamala Harris’ net approval rating has also experienced a downturn, decreasing four points to -5% this week. In our latest poll, 42% disapprove (up 4%) and 37% approve (no change) of Kamala Harris’ performance as Vice President, with a further 15% neither approving nor disapproving (down 3%).
With respect to the overall Joe Biden Administration, Americans give the Administration a net competency rating of -5%, a five-point decrease from our polling two weeks ago. In total, 42% think the current Biden Administration is incompetent (up 4%), 37% think it is competent (down 1%), and 14% think it is neither competent nor incompetent (up 2%).
On matters of policy, the coronavirus pandemic and the environment remain the only areas where the Joe Biden Administration elicits positive net approval ratings. Assessments of the Administration’s performance on the pandemic continue to be particularly favourable, with a net approval rating of +13%—though this represents a five-point decrease from last week. Meanwhile, on the environment, Americans give a net approval rating of +4% (down 3%).
In all other policy areas, Americans give the current American Administration negative net approval ratings, as well as worse net approval ratings compared to two weeks ago. These ratings range from -6% on the economy (down 5%) and -6% on housing (down 2%) to -13% on relations with China (down 6%) and -24% on immigration (down 6%). The latter policy area sees the greatest proportion of both 2020 Donald Trump voters (85%) and 2020 Joe Biden voters (19%) expressing disapproval.
Looking ahead to the 2024 Presidential Election, healthcare is the top issue that Americans say will determine how they will vote in the election. When asked to select up to three issues that are most likely to determine how they vote in 2024, 44% select healthcare, 39% select unemployment and wages, 32% select immigration, 28% select the environment, and 28% select Government spending as determinative election issues.
Healthcare (59%) is the most-selected option for 2020 Joe Biden voters, followed by the environment (41%) and unemployment and wages (36%). For 2020 Donald Trump voters, the most popular 2024 election issues are immigration (53%), unemployment and wages (41%), and Government spending (41%). Indeed, on the latter issue, 79% of Trump voters think the Government is spending too much, as do 34% of Biden voters.
In our hypothetical voting intention polling for the 2024 Presidential Election, 42% say they will vote for Joe Biden (no change) and 42% say they will vote for Donald Trump (up 2%) if they were to be the candidates in 2024, after weighting by likelihood to vote. A further 13% say they don’t know how they would vote (up 1%). Given the variance of the Electoral College, this effective tie in the popular vote would likely mean a victory for a hypothetical Trump campaign in 2024.
Large majorities of 2020 Donald Trump voters (87%, no change) and Joe Biden voters (83%, down 2%) maintain that they would again vote for those respective candidates.